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After the defeat, the exodus?

George Iype in New Delhi

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee resigned on Saturday after the 13-month old Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition government was voted out in the Lok Sabha by a margin of one vote. The government secured 269 votes, while the combined opposition russelled up 270 against it.

The unexpected defeat in the trust vote by the closest margin in India's parliamentary history, shocked the prime minister, his cabinet colleagues and the BJP leaders who had worked out the arithmetic right for a simple majority till Saturday morning.

"People changed their minds during the vote in the Lok Sabha even though they had promised support to the BJP," Vajpayee told reporters after tendering his resignation to President K R Narayanan.

But the caretaker prime minister did not rule out the possibility of a mid-term election, as he was suspicious of the alternative coalition that the Opposition parties led by the Congress are trying to cobble together.

On the eve of the voting on the confidence motion on Friday, Vajpayee appeared all set to win in the trial of strength, as the BJP's hectic, weeklong efforts to mop up the magic numbers in the Lower House had begun to fructify.

The four-member Indian National Lok Dal, and the six-member Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam had declared their unconditional support to the prime minister.

But the BJP's calculations went awry when crucial support in the form of abstentions promised by the Bahujan Samaja Party leader Mayawati in the Lok Sabha did not materialise.

Congress sources disclosed that BSP leaders Kanshi Ram and Mayawati were compelled to vote against the Vajpayee government by the direct intervention of party president Sonia and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general secretary J Jayalalitha.

BJP leaders said the BSP's decision to humiliate the prime minister in the Lok Sabha was a tactical decision from Kanshi Ram and Mayawati, who "were never convinced by the promises made by the BJP leadership."

In fact, Human Resource Development Minister Dr Murli Manohar Joshi had spent a day clinching a reported deal with the BSP on Thursday. As per the deal, if BSP voted for the trust vote, two of its members would be made ministers at Centre.

But Kanshi Ram had insisted on the ouster of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Kalyan Singh as a pre-condition to his party's support. "Our failure to promise the removal of Kalyan Singh seems to have foiled the deal," a BJP functionary told Rediff On The Net.

Defeat was also forcibly thrust on the BJP when Saifuddin Soz of the three-member National Conference decided to vote against the government. Nor did former prime minister Chandra Shekhar, who had indicated to support the government, come to the BJP's rescue.

"We were defeated because there was a betrayal of promise and genuine pledge of support from the BSP, Soz and Shekhar," the BJP functionary said, adding, "Our calculation went wrong because Mayawati ditched us."

The defeat also put a question mark on the negotiation capabilities of Vajpayee's chief crisis managers -- Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Information and Broadcasting Minister Pramod Mahajan and Parliamentary Affairs Minister P R Kumaramangalam.

While the BJP leaders spent the whole of Saturday afternoon suffering from the aftershock of the political quake that Jayalalitha forced upon them, the party leadership lost no time in ensuring that its remaining coalition members do not walk away to the new emerging coalition.

Soon after his resignation, Vajpayee called a crucial meeting of all the alliance partners to thank them for their 13-month support and to ensure that they all remain under the BJP banner in the coming days.

Having lost power and in the numbers game in Parliament, the BJP leadership admitted that keeping its allies together is going to be a daunting task.

Dissidence has been brewing in the Biju Janata Dal and the Samata Party for the past six months as a cross-section of MPs in both the parties oppose the leadership of Naveen Patnaik and George Fernandes respectively.

Now that the government has been defeated, seven MPs from the BJD and five MPs from the SP are reportedly on the verge of walking over to the Opposition ranks when the new ruling coalition emerges next week.

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