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Government has the edge in the numbers game

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

While members of the Lok Sabha debate the motion of confidence tabled by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee this morning, hectic parleys are continuing outside in what is becoming 'The Numbers Game'.

The good news today for the Bharatiya Janata Party came from Madras, where Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam president M Karunanidhi declared that since the Left Front had deserted the DMK by aligning with Jayalalitha, his party had no option but to reconsider its alliance with the Communists. The DMK has six MPs in the Lok Sabha.

The DMK's ally, the Tamil Maanila Congress, with three members, remains another source of hope for the BJP. The TMC was formed in 1996 after some Congress members rebelled against the party's decision to align with the All-India Anna DMK.

The TMC remains staunchly opposed to Jayalalitha, and BJP sources said they expect it to at least abstain, if not support the government, rather than join a front that includes the AIADMK.

The Bahujan Samaj Party, with five members, has said it will decide on the floor of the House which way to vote. BJP leaders remain confident of gaining the support of the mercurial Kanshi Ram if only because he and his second-in-command, Mayawati, are stoutly opposed to the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav.

BJP officials insist that no underhand deals are being struck for the support of other parties, but that assertion is being taken with a handful of salt. The BSP does have a big grouse against the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh assembly. Twelve of its 60-odd MLAs had broken away to back the Kalyan Singh government. As per the Anti-Defection Law, they should have been disqualified, but Speaker Kesri Nath Tripathi allowed them to vote while keeping their case pending. The case is still pending despite the BSP's best efforts.

Kanshi Ram had pointed this out to the media and it is certain that he will demand some quid pro quo for backing the government.

Om Parkash Chautala, chief of the four-member Indian National Lok Dal, has time and again insisted that he will oppose any trust motion tabled by the government. He has also declared that he will strongly oppose any Congress-led government. But BJP sources insist this is just a bargaining position and that Chautala will eventually support the government. The sources added that at least two INLD members are keen to support the government and the BJP is confident that Chautala will fall in line with their wishes rather than risk a split in his party.

Almost as if to prove the point, an INLD MP said this morning that the party's final decision on whether to support the government would only be taken at the time of the vote. The BJP hopes that at worst, the INLD will abstain.

The BJP is getting a major boost from an unlikely source -- the Janata Dal. Former prime minister H D Deve Gowda has declared that the party's six MPs will oppose the confidence motion and are keen to participate in a coalition with the Congress and the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha. According to some reports, he sees himself as prime minister again.

But others in the Janata Dal nurse a grouse against Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Laloo Prasad Yadav and are not so keen to support any front that includes him.

Another factor is the bruising intra-Janata Dal battle Deve Gowda has been waging against Karnataka Chief Minister J H Patel, in the process upsetting some of the Lok Sabha members from the state. Thus, the Dal is a divided party. While some want no truck with Laloo Yadav, others are angry with Deve Gowda. It is these disgruntled members who provide some hope to the BJP.

Sources in the Congress and the BJP said they expect the Dal to split. The feeling is that Paswan and another member or two (probably from Karnataka) will float a new party and back the government.

Other individuals are also being wooed. According to the BJP sources, the Shiromani Akali Dal is pressing former prime minister I K Gujral, also of the Janata Dal, to repay a favour. Gujral won the March 1998 election from Jalandhar, Punjab, primarily because the Akalis and the BJP did not put up a candidate against him. They now expect him to abstain at the least.

The sources added that Anand Mohan of the Rashtriya Janata Party may also back the government or abstain. They hinted that another former prime minister, Chandra Shekhar, who is upset with the Congress for treating him with disdain, is thinking on similar lines.

The BJP is working overtime, warning parties having just one MP each and Independents against a mid-term election. The key issue is the exorbitant cost involved and the fear of members of having to face the electorate so soon without any tangible achievement. Most members are seriously short of funds. Many are still repaying loans borrowed to pay for last year's election!

That even members of established parties have voiced similar worries indicates how desperate the smaller parties and independents must be to avoid another election right now.

"What has helped is the inability of the Congress to give a clear picture of what they will do should the government fall. The smaller outfits fear that the Congress will not be able to provide an alternative, leading to elections, which no one wants now," the sources said.

All this together gives the BJP-led coalition an edge. In the 542-member Lok Sabha (effectively 541, since the Speaker cannot vote unless there is a tie), the number of votes needed for a win is 271. The BJP front, comprising the party and its allies, total 256.

With the supporters mentioned above (not including likely support from independents and single-member parties), the equation becomes: BJP front 256 + DMK 6 + TMC 3 + BSP 4 + INLD 5 + JD 2 = 276. Home and dry.

Assuming the TMC and INLD abstain, the effective strength of the House will be reduced to (541 -- 7 =) 534, the halfway mark of which is 267. Again, BJP plus allies plus the other supporters (256 + 6 + 4 + 2) adds to 268. Home again.

Assuming more abstentions, excluding the DMK, the number of absent votes will be (TMC 3 + BSP 5 + INLD 4 + JD 2 = 14). The effective strength of the House in this case becomes 527, making 264 the finish line. In that case, the BJP front + DMK = 262, marginally short by just two, which is achievable.

If all those mentioned above abstain (DMK 6 + TMC 3 + BSP 5 + INLD 4 + JD 2 = 20), the effective strength of the House becomes 521, making 261 the halfway mark. In this case, the BJP front will fall short by five votes, rather more difficult to achieve since most other votes would have been committed.

The last is the worst scenario for the BJP. In the last two scenarios, the coalition will need the support of Independents and others to bail it out, many of whom are being lured with carrots and sticks -- promises of benefits and the fear of elections.

There is, of course, the likelihood of the above calculations going awry, and most of those on whom the BJP is banking deserting it. Then the Opposition will romp home a winner. Yet, BJP sources are confident of pulling through while Congress sources admit the leadership is worried. That itself gives the ruling front an edge, even if razor-thin.

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