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DMK for BJP, TMC options still open

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

There may be some good news for the BJP and the Vajpayee government from Tamil Nadu. While the six-member DMK, ruling the state, has informally decided to vote with the Vajpayee government on Saturday's confidence vote in the Lok Sabha, its Tamil Maanila Congress, ally with three MPs, is keeping its option open, still.

"The TMC may vote with the Vajpayee government if it will help it survive. The party may not want its votes to go waste, should the government lose the vote," says an informed source.

While the DMK has laid greater stress on local conditions, where the AIADMK and Jayalalitha are its main electoral enemies, the TMC seems caught between ideology and political pragmatism. It has been opposed to the 'BJP brand of communalism' since its leaders's days in the Congress, but is apprehensive of being marginalised in state politics if the AIADMK is given a 'revival package'.

"It would have been easier for us to take a decision if the Congress had made its intentions clear on the alternative set-up, if and when the Vajpayee government fell," says a TMC leader. "Yes, we are opposed to both the 'communal BJP' and the 'corrupt AIADMK' in equal measure, but there has been no word from the Congress on excluding the AIADMK from an alternative government."

He refers to the TMC cadre mood, which is "as much anti-Jayalalitha as anti-BJP. But the mood of the increasing ranks of middle class voter, who is sympathetic towards the BJP in the current situation, is totally against the AIADMK's 'withdrawal syndrome' ever since it joined the Vajpayee government. Hence, the balance of convenience favours the party either backing the Vajpayee government, by losing lesser in the bargain than otherwise."

Given TMC founder G K Moopanar's long-term attachment to the Congress, and his personal loyalty to the Nehru-Gandhi family, the party would not like to hurt the interests of its parent organisation. But as party sources point out, "The Congress has remained incommunicado for most parts, and seem to be treating the TMC as inconsequential, ever since the current crisis cropped up over a fortnight back."

There is fear in the TMC that any swing towards the BJP may deny the party its 'traditional Muslim-Christian votebanks', which have been 'increasing since the Coimbatore serial blasts last year. Traditional supporters of the DMK, Muslims in the state felt "betrayed by the ruling party after the state police swooped down on their youth in connection with the Coimbatore blasts.

Muslim voters, alongside the TMC's traditional Christian votebanks in the southern districts, now form a "major chunk of our committed voters," says the TMC leader.

Against this, there are those who argue that the minority votebanks in the state will swing the Congress way if Sonia Gandhi campaigned vigorously for the party. "With the Congress moving closer to the AIADMK, and the TMC and its real concerns remaining unaddressed, the TMC may lose this segment of the votebank for good," says a source adding, "The minority votebank in the state is neither substantial, nor consistent."

In this context, this source also refers to the Congress high command not taking the state party leadership into confidence before deciding to move closer with the AIADMK. Whatever the high command may say, there is a clear public perception that the Congress is behind the AIADMK-initiated troubles to the Vajpayee government.

With the Congress keeping even its 'natural' ally out of the picture, "we are returning to the 1996-like situation, leading to the birth of the TMC," adds the afore-quoted leader. "There is also no guarantee that the Congress will not accommodate the AIADMK, our enemy number one in the state, now or later."

TMC strategists also concede two other points. "Any revival of the AIADMK's fortunes now, which the defeat of the Vajpayee government would entail, can lead to the marginalisation of the TMC in state politics. More importantly, the TMC will have a better political leverage with its three MPs, now in the BJP company, than in the Congress combine, which at the moment manage without the party. Caught between the established DMK and the revived AIADMK, there may not be any TMC left."

For all this, however, the TMC may take its time, deciding on its support to the Vajpayee government, before Saturday's Lok Sabha vote. Unlike the political majors who have their electoral roles cut out for them, the TMC has to ensure that the combine in which it is a part succeeds.

"This means, the TMC may back the BJP, either by voting with it or abstaining, if it is guaranteed of the survival of the Vajpayee government, with its three votes."

Voting with the Vajpayee government could also mean a one-way swing of votes in the state for future elections, and keeping its alliance with the DMK intact. "With the DMK replacing the AIADMK in the BJP combine, any future election could see the possibility of the two parties tying up with the BJP's MDMK and PMK allies."

If the TMC and Moopanar are caught on the horns of a dilemma, the DMK is much better off. The party has informally decided to back the BJP, based on the AIADMK's withdrawal of support to the Vajpayee government, and the Left's revived interest in Jayalalitha, after initial hesitation.

"Though our concerns centred more around the Left and less around the Congress, the latter was more civilised," says a DMK source, referring to an Opposition delegation calling on President K R Narayanan on Thursday.

"The Left, which talks so much about the still-born Third Front did not even care to inform us about the delegation meeting the President. Only the Congress invited us, though we decided not to participate, in the absence of any clear-cut idea on the AIADMK participation in the alternative set-up, if and when the Vajpayee government fell," says a senior DMK leader.

Between them, both the DMK and the TMC leaders, share another concern. "If and when an alternative government is formed with Left support, they will start their bickerings with the Congress on economic issues, where both DMK and the TMC too favour liberalisation. For its part, the AIADMK is sure to raise its 'real issues' involving Jayalalitha's cases, all of which can lead to fall of the alternative government, and a fresh election. Which is what the nation can do without."

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