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Opposition moves in for the kill as Vajpayee digs in

George Iype in New Delhi

The final round of the battle between the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government and the Opposition began on Monday as politicians of all hues went into huddles to chalk out watertight strategies for forging a new coalition at the Centre.

As Parliament reassembles on Thursday and the BJP's estranged partner, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalitha, is all set to reveal her plans on Tuesday, ruling and Opposition leaders said they are hard at work to win the numbers game.

Sensing the political crisis that lies ahead, Prime Minister Vajpayee, accompanied by Home Minister L K Advani and Parliamentary Affairs Minister P R Kumaramangalam met President K R Narayanan on Monday for 40 minutes.

Rashtrapati Bhavan officials said the prime minister discussed the political situation with the President and apprised him of the BJP's plans for survival if and when the AIADMK withdraws support to his government.

The BJP's crisis managers admitted that they are yet to win over the DMK, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Indian National Lok Dal.

"In the absence of a clear commitment from other regional parties, we are ready to face the worst, including a mid-term poll," a BJP official told Rediff On The NeT.

But he said the party leadership is still banking on Vajpayee's image. "We hope if a confidence vote is moved against Vajpayee, there will be cross-voting like that happened on the Bihar bill," he claimed. He added that the government needs only "a few numbers" which is "achievable in the present Lok Sabha."

On Monday morning, one of Vajpayee's emissaries met INLD leader Om Parkash Chautala to plead for an assurance of support, which the latter refused to consider. Similarly, BSP chief Kanshi Ram informed the BJP leadership that his party cannot support the BJP 'at this juncture'.

While the DMK is yet to give a solemn assurance to Vajpayee, the government is now busy counting on two plans to survive when Jayalalitha withdraws support. First, ministers like Kumaramangalam and Pramod Mahajan are working hard to ensure that there will be "enough abstentions" in the Lok Sabha if a trust vote is moved against Vajpayee.

Second, the BJP hopes that Jayalalitha will not withdraw support unless and until the Congress and the Third Front accept her set of demands, including the AIADMK's active participation in a new coalition government.

But if Jayalalitha fails in her mission with the Congress and the Third Front, the BJP leadership thinks there will always be room for a rapprochement with her. "Our last effort will be to ask Jayalalitha to support the Vajpayee government from the outside," the BJP official added.

While the BJP is making last-ditch efforts for survival, it is trying hard to prevent the formation of an alternative government so that Vajpayee can continue as caretaker prime minister in the run-up to a mid-term poll.

With the BJP in combat mode, the Congress is playing safe to ensure that it does not engage in a flip-flop with Jayalalitha and the Third Front partners.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi held marathon meetings with senior leaders Sharad Pawar, Pranab Mukherjee and Dr Manmohan Singh on Sunday night and Monday morning. Party sources said the Congress will take "further moves" only after Jayalalitha officially withdraws support to the Vajpayee government.

Congress leaders said Sonia has clearly said that any risky step at this juncture will show the party in bad light in case the Vajpayee government manages to survive a confidence motion in Parliament.

Congress leaders also expect a host of problems to crop up once Jayalalitha starts her negotiations with them and Third Front politicians from Tuesday.

Sources said Jayalalitha has already indicated to Congress and Third Front leaders that seven AIADMK MPs should be made ministers in any new coalition.

This will be the first point of friction between Sonia and the AIADMK chief, as the former is averse to the idea of discussing nitty-gritty before Vajpayee is voted out.

While hectic political negotiations are on, observers say in case Vajpayee fails in a trust vote in Parliament, the following is the alternative scenario:

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