Rediff On The NeT: India heads for hung Parliament again


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January 23, 1998

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India heads for hung Parliament again

Some observations after the second CMS pre-poll survey by CMS director Dr N Bhaskara Rao:

It will be a hung Lok Sabha again, with no party getting an absolute majority (even with known allies) as of now.

The BJP clearly improved its standing with voters by nearly 9 percentage points over its 1996 level. Even the Congress has improved marginally by 1.5 percentage points. The loser is the United Front. The ruling coalition lost almost 8 percentage points.

The BJP has moved up closer since dissolution of the Lok Sabha, but is still short of the required numbers.

The BJP's alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam has not led to synergy. An alliance with the Congress would have made a marked difference for the AIADMK.

The BJP has made its presence felt in states in the South and East.

In the South, the BJP is likely to increase its tally by 16 to 20 seats (including the AIADMK's tally). In the East it is likely to increase its score by 10 to 14 seats (including the Biju Janata Dal’s tally in Orissa).

In Uttar Pradesh the beneficiary is likely to be Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. The SP is expected to increase its number of Lok Sabha seats to 22 from 16 in 1996.

The Bahujan Samaj Party in UP, on the other hand, is likely to end up with 4 or 5 seats against the 6 it won in 1996. But it will make up in other states like Madhya Pradesh.

Between the major contenders, the one with more "new faces" as candidates is likely to have an advantage with the electorate.

Since stability is viewed as an electoral issue, the BJP is likely to retain its lead in the race.

Before Sonia Gandhi’s entry, the Congress was not expected to reach its 1996 level of 142 seats. One-third of Congress voters oppose Sonia’s active role in politics as against 60 per cent of BJP (and its allies) voters who oppose Sonia.

Should Sonia campaign extensively, she may win an additional 20 or 30 seats for the Congress.

If the United Front or its constituents like the Left parties, the SP and DMK/ Tamil Maanila Congress -- who could win about 100 seats -- lend the party its support, the Congress could stake a claim with a more acceptable candidate as PM.

There is no guarantee that Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa or Ramakrishna Hegde of the Lok Shakthi in Karnataka will continue to support the BJP in the post-poll scene.

In any case, the BJP is likely to be given the first chance to form a government by the President. As the single largest party. As it happened in 1996.

Pre-poll surveys are apparently making some difference to the character of key parties in terms of their campaigns, positions and even alignments.

Despite the pro-BJP direction of pre-poll surveys, there is no wave in the BJP's favour so far. There is, however, a clear momentum both for and against the BJP in different parts of the country.

The CMS survey continues

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