Rediff On The NeT: BJP may win 235 to 245 seats


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January 23, 1998

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BJP may win 235 to 245 seats

CMS POLL 1998

FORECAST OF VOTES AND SEATS

(field work between January 9 and 11, 1998

in 60 Lok Sabha constituencies with 8,400 voters)

Party	(Percentage of votes) 1996 (Actual) 1998(Forecast)	Seats
BJP *	25.4. 34.7	235 to 245
CONGRESS**	29.9. 31.4	140 to 150
UF ***	30.7. 22.4	120 to 130
OTHERS	14. 11.5	20 to 30

* The BJP tally includes seats that may be won by its allies, the AIADMK, Akali Dal, Biju Janata Dal, Haryana Vikas Party, Lok Shakthi, Samata Party and Shiv Sena.

** The Congress tally includes seats that may be won by its allies, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Rashtriya Janata Party and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha,

*** The United Front includes the Asom Gana Parishad, JD, Left Front, DMK, TMC, Telugu Desam Party and Samajwadi Party.

GAINS / LOSSES -- VOTES AND SEATS

Party

Swing (% points) over the 1996 election

Gain / loss of seats

BJP

(+) 9.3

(+) 40 to 50

CONGRESS

(+) 1.5

(+) 5 to 15

UF

(-) 8.3

(-) 60 to 70

OTHERS

(-) 3.5

(+) 5 to 15

IS THERE ANYTHING WRONG IF SONIA GANDHI TRIES TO BECOME THE PRIME MINISTER?

Yes, it is not wrong.	49
No, it is wrong	28.4
Don’t know / can’t say	23.6

CANDIDATE PEOPLE WANT TO VOTE FOR

Sitting MP	23
Old face/ one lost	17.8
A new face	45.2
Don’t know / can’t say	14

Elections '98

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