The Sumit Ganguly Chat
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 7:57 IST)
Hello Suparn, I have successfully signed on, thanks! Sumit
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:0 IST)
Yes, I am here. Let's start with the chat in earnest! I have definite views both about the nuclear test and the Kashmir issue. Sumit Ganguly
War Peace (Fri Jun 12 1998 7:57 IST)
Is there really any hope for Indo-Pak relations now? Thanks to the explosions, the doomsday clock has been moved by five minutes?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:7 IST)
Hi everyone, I hope that my messages are getting through. Yes, it is possible for India and Pakistan to make peace. The events of the last two months and much silly commentary from folks abroad have obscured the history of limited co-operation that has existed between India and Pakistan since their independence in 1947. For example, the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 is still adhered to by both sides. Other agreements were also reached though they did not work as well. On the other hand, both India and Pakistan accepted and have adhered to the international tribunal's award on the Kutch despite much domestic opposition on both sides at the time.
On the Kashmir question, in my view, India should formally and unequivocally drop its claim on the Northern Territories and so-called Azad Kashmir. These areas are effectively parts of Pakistan. India should adopt a policy of letting sleeping dogs lie. Sumit Ganguly
sainarasimhan (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:4 IST)
Prof Ganguly: We know from various accounts that the effect of the sanctions will only be felt after about 1 year. What do you think these effects will be if the status quo is maintained vis-a-vis NRI investments? How much should the NRIs invest, in what manner, and which sectors of the economy to neutralise (or at least minimise) the effects of the sanctions? And finally what can the government do to attract the NRI funds?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:11 IST)
To turn to the questions of sanctions; I believe that the very timid and somewhat retrograde Budget that Mr Yashwant Sinha presented to Parliament will do little to alleviate the effects of sanctions. Foreign investors were not exactly beating a path to India's partially closed door even prior to the sanctions. India desperately needs capital for infrastructural projects. The current Budget, beyond making some statements about cutting red tape does little to attract substantial foreign investment. Also, do not rely on the NRIs to bail India out. Their outlook is quite short-sighted for all their loose talk of patriotism. These great patriots and friends of India withdrew their resources during the fiscal crisis of 1991. Sumit Ganguly
War Peace (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:0 IST)
Prof Ganguly, how close are India and Pakistan to a war? Is it not easy for emotions to go overboard. There are many on both sides who seriously believe that one last war to resolve Kashmir either way is long overdue? Do you see it happen?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:13 IST)
The chance of a deliberate, premeditated war between India and Pakistan are small. Pakistan is now concerned about its day-to-day survival. It simply does not have the resources or the ability to mount a war. Also, despite Mr Advani's intemperate statements on the Kashmir issue, no advantage would accrue to India by starting a war. However, war could come as a result of misperception, miscalculation and intelligence failures. Sumit Ganguly
Sammy (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:11 IST)
Professor, regarding Kashmir, you said that India should give up its claim to POK, but even if that occurs, Pakistan will not give up its claim to Kashmir. So the ball is in their court really.
Lnara (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:12 IST)
Ganguly, how can you say the Budget is retrograde when it has laid stress on agriculture (our backbone), infrastructure, and attracting NRIs? What more can he do with pulls from the allies?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:19 IST)
Of course, Pakistan will not renounce its claim to Kashmir. It is for Indian diplomacy to find ways of getting Pakistan to accept certain ineluctable realities. Unless India is perceived to be making a concession, however symbolic, I doubt that any Pakistani leader will be able to effectively negotiate. Do not underestimate the degree of hostility towards India amongst the Pakistani military and their desire to make India pay for 1971.
I believe the Budget is quite retrograde. Indian agriculture is more pampered than American agriculture and that is saying a lot. Indian agriculture now needs to be weaned off a variety of subsidies which are a serious drain on agriculture. Also, India needs to shift towards a more industrially-oriented economy if it has to develop and address the key question of mass poverty. Sumit Ganguly
shiva (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:17 IST)
Prof, you say the chances of premeditated war is less. But given the case of terrorism support from Pakistan, what prevents the Indian army from going across the border, Pak retaliating, and this escalating into a war?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:21 IST)
Dear Shiva, The Indian leadership, to its credit, has shown considerable restraint on Kashmir in terms of hot pursuit. (Mr Advani's careless remark notwithstanding!) Unfortunately, it has not made its case to the international community with sufficient dexterity. For this I blame the ham-handed quality of Indian diplomacy. Sumit Ganguly
sainarasimhan (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:22 IST)
Prof Ganguly: In your perception ... why is it that India is not being taken seriously in the West when she accuses China as being the main reason for the recent nuclear tests? What does the Indian external affairs ministry have to do to sell the Indian reasoning behind the nuclear tests? More generally, what does the Indian PR machine have to do to sell India's world view to the world?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:24 IST)
Dear Sainarasimhan, Yes, this has been a long-standing problem. I am afraid that in international politics, more than in everyday life, there is a great deal of hypocrisy and deceit. Tragically, thanks to Pakistan's role in the Cold War and extremely deft diplomacy on their part, Pakistan is frequently seen at par with India. This is a gross distortion of fact. Again, careful and thoughtful diplomacy could work to redress the situation, especially now that the Cold War is over. Sumit Ganguly
Sammy (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:15 IST)
Regarding your criticism of the Budget, don't you feel that in a democracy it is more difficult to push reforms? Also, how long
will it take for India to become an economic power
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:27 IST)
Dear Sammy, I quite agree with you that in a democracy it is more difficult to push through drastic economic reforms. However, the present Budget engages in backsliding. Specifically, among other matters, I refer to the foolish 8 per cent surcharge on imports. India already has one of the highest tariff rates in the world. This tax will send exactly the wrong message to the international business community. Sumit Ganguly
Nandan (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:27 IST)
Does the professor think Indian diplomacy is that bad. I am not sure about this. Sir, Do you think Jaswant Singhji is going to have some effect on Talbot and the lot
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:31 IST)
Dear Nandan, Yes, I do believe that Indian diplomacy is quite crude even though there are brilliant individuals in the Indian Foreign Service. The biggest problem that dogs Indian diplomacy is its tendency to speak in grand legal and moral terms. Instead, India should adopt a far more pragmatic tone and address its own needs and concerns rather than still trying to save the benighted of the earth.
Yes, Jaswant Singh has done a superb job here. However, Mr. Singh remains a lone, able individual. I am talking about the need to overhaul the working and the mentality of the foreign policy bureaucracy. Sumit Ganguly
Dharmatma (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:28 IST)
SG: Already India has given up too much and Muslims snatched away Indian land by blackmailing with a civil war prior to 1947. This they did because Hindus are peace loving people and are not willing to fight and also because of Mahatma's Ahimsa. India must not repeat such grave mistake ever again. By giving up POK to Pakistan, India will encourage Pakistan to ask for more. Also it is evil policy separating on religious lines.
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:36 IST)
Dear Dharmatma, I believe that your formulation of the Hindu-Muslim problem is a bit too facile. The Muslim League, though quite opportunistic and demagogic, nevertheless had some genuine fears that it preyed upon. Poor Muslims in isolated communities did fear Hindu domination and prejudice after the departure of the British. While the Congress tried to ally these fears, their efforts were not entirely successful. Pakistan has successfully existed despite the loss of East Pakistan (something they richly deserved given their behaviour against the Bengalis). There is no point in re-visiting historical questions. India should simply find ways, however problematic, to develop a civil, if not friendly, relationship with Pakistan. Frankly, such a policy is in India's interest. Sumit Ganguly
Lnara (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:35 IST)
Prof, I think the biggest problem for India is diplomacy. It should not care for the West or anything. They should go on indigenously in everything and things will drastically improve
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:38 IST)
Dear Lnara, I am afraid that a self-reliant strategy of economic growth leads directly to Albania or Burma in today's world. India has to trade with the external world and open up its market if the vast majority of India's poor are to see any material improvement in their lives. Sumit Ganguly
sainarasimhan (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:27 IST)
Prof Ganguly: Thank you for answering my previous question. You sound quite pessimistic about the prospects for India. In a worst case scenario, (sanctions create economic problems, NRIs do not follow through on funds, FDI is negative, Pakistan and China cause more problems in the frontiers AND internally) do you think it is possible that India will be Balkanized? With all the festering problems, a weak government at the centre for the third time in a row, and strong regional satraps, isn't it possible that the forces straining India might force her to break up?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:42 IST)
Dear Sainarasimhan, Please forgive me if I have misspelt your name. It's not intentional! No, there is little or no chance that India will break up. The comparisons with the former USSR and Yugoslavia are both inappropriate and foolish. A very high degree of political, economic and social integration has taken place in India and the prospects for its disintegration, like Mark Twain's death notice, have been greatly exaggerated! Sumit Ganguly
Satbir (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:30 IST)
We first fell into the trap laid out by the British and started fighting amongst ourselves as India vs Pak. Now we are falling into the trap of other international powers. Are we not acting merely as kathputlis?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:46 IST)
Dear Satbir, I agree with our sentiments about the British. However, today India is the master of its own house. It has taken a tough decision with the nuclear tests. Now it has to squarely face the consequences and engage in damage limitation. This will require Mr Vajpayee to set out a sense of national purpose. Simultaneously, someone needs to muzzle two of his troublesome coalition partners. (I shall let you guess about the two!) Sumit Ganguly
War Peace (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:31 IST)
Hey Prof, guess what? The G-8 has decided in London to deny all loans to India (and Pakistan). The decision was taken following an appeal by the US. What does this mean for the Indian economy? Is it also a diplomatic defeat?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:49 IST)
War Peace, Yes, the limitations on loans is yet another failure of Indian diplomacy. Instead of pious statements, India should have dramatized its security concerns. I have watched the evolution of India's public relations efforts from my perch in NYC with increasing dismay. Sumit Ganguly
Lnara (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:47 IST)
Prof, in this 21 century (assuming it is 2000) you cannot have wars even though you may want it. Will US show any diplomatic initiative if Pak starts a war foolishly against India. No one will come to our rescue although we may not need any help from anyone because we are now a nuclear power after Atalji's brilliant move
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:51 IST)
Dear Lnara, I believe that the US would resort to warnings and put diplomatic pressure on Pakistan if it initiated another war with India. I doubt that the State Department cares about Pakistan any more than those gestures would suggest. Sumit Ganguly
Sammy (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:50 IST)
Professor, let's go back to a point you raised earlier. You said that both India and Pak realise the foolishness of going to war but still war can occur due to lack of communication. Would you elaborate on that?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:54 IST)
Dear Sammy, I did not mean failures of communication. I meant failures of intelligence and inadvertent escalation. Let me try to be more specific. During the Brasstacks exercise in 1987, Pakistani intelligence provided grossly inflated assessments of Indian capabilities to their senior generals who then assumed the worst and moved troops accordingly. Also, what may be deemed to be reasonable moves on the Indian (or Pakistani) side could be interpreted in a very different light across the border and then lead to a conflict spiral. Sumit
lnaray (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:53 IST)
Prof, Was sending the IPKF to Lanka by Rajiv Gandhi the right thing to do? by Rajiv. Mrs Gandhi went in for an unnecessary war with Pak and her son too got involved in another country's politics
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:56 IST)
Dear lnaray, I fully supported Mrs Gandhi on the 1971 issue and still do. Her only mistake came in Simla as far as Pakistan
was concerned. She should have compelled Bhutto to accept the Line of
Actual Control as an international border. The IPKF, I agree with you, was a tragic misadventure and Rajiv Gandhi is indeed to blame. Sumit Ganguly
Atlanta Vijay (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:55 IST)
Namaskaar Prof. Sumit. I remember seeing you in the Jim Lehrer show. How are you doing today?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:58 IST)
Hello Vijay, I am delighted to learn that you saw me on the Jim Lehrer Newshour. I hope that I made some sense. I am doing well. Best, Sumit Ganguly
aman (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:57 IST)
What do you think about India's economic situations after the tests. Don't we have already enough problems to take care of than creating more?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:0 IST)
Dear Aman, I quite agree with you that the aftermath of the tests will be painful for India. Some of this pain can be reduced through careful and subtle diplomacy. Despite the G-8 vote against India and Pakistan today much can be done to alleviate the effects of the sanctions. To start with, India needs to dramatically open its markets, drastically shrink the public sector and project its security concerns with greater vigor abroad. Sumit
sainarasimhan (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:59 IST)
Prof Ganguly: As a totally off-side question, is it even remotely possible that India will get UN Security Council permanent membership? Don't you think India should lower her sights and aim for SAARC strength, expand and enrich it until it becomes a trading bloc a la Mercosur, NAFTA, EU, and ASEAN? How would you advise Indian leaders in matters
such as these?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:2 IST)
Dear Sainarasimhan, I doubt that under the present troubled circumstances India has any hope of entering the SC as a permanent member. Sumit Ganguly
Atlanta Vijay (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:59 IST)
Prof Ganguly : Why is the USA so interested in furthering ties with China at the expense of India or Pakistan? What do you think is Clinton strategy as far as South Asia is concerned so that USA can get maximum benefit out of it economically/politically??
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:3 IST)
Dear Vijay, It has much to do with China's growing military power and its booming economy, not to mention America's enormous economic presence there. Sumit Ganguly
pc (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:57 IST)
Professor Ganguly - Is the Indian ability to communicate its fears (pre-Pokhran 2) of a Sino-US axis a diplomatic failure or were these fears brushed aside?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:5 IST)
pc, No India's fears and security concerns were only communicated in the most elliptical fashion. Jaswant Singh is doing a better job. However, these concerns must be routinely aired and in the most concrete terms. Sumit Ganguly
lnaray (Fri Jun 12 1998 8:56 IST)
Prof, Do you think the bombing is right or wrong. What do you think as the main reason for bombing? Their logic seems to be right after we saw Pak testing within a month
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:7 IST)
lnaray, What bombing are you referring to? Sumit Ganguly
War Peace (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:5 IST)
For India entering the UN Security Council was a big step. Now we are nowhere near it. Do you see India totally isolated diplomatically (economically we seem only too keen to do that to allow lousy Indian industrialists to continue giving us useless stuff)
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:8 IST)
War Peace, Yes, India is in serious danger of diplomatic isolation. It will take, and to some extent it has undertaken, efforts to end this isolation. However, these efforts need to be placed on a war footing. Sumit Ganguly
Sammy (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:8 IST)
Professor, I would like your view on which countries can we consider as our allies. Also former finance minister Chidambaram predicted that India would remove poverty by 2025. Do you think that's a realistic estimate?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:10 IST)
Sammy, With all due respect to the former finance minister I fear that goal will not be within India's reach unless it takes more drastic measures on the economic front. India needs to grow at 7 per cent per annum to double its national income in ten years. Sumit Ganguly
kundgol (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:9 IST)
Do you foresee any war with Pak ?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:11 IST)
Dear Kundgol, No I do not seriously foresee a war with Pakistan in the near future. Sumit Ganguly
aman (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:7 IST)
I live in Canada. People make fun of us here saying that you should provide food for the people of India before providing them with bombs. I study at Univ of Windsor. I had a hard time explaining every single thing to them
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:15 IST)
Dear Aman, Simply remind your colleagues that countries need both guns and butter. Security is essential for economic development. Japan could not have prospered after World War 2 unless the US underwrote their security. India must make choices that it feels are in its interest. Incidentally, you should also inform your ignorant colleagues that India has been self-sufficient in agriculture for over 10 years even though poverty does persist. In any case, why do you not raise the issue of homelessness in Canada, a supposedly compassionate and caring society? Sumit Ganguly
pc (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:11 IST)
Dr.Ganguly : what are the exact terms of the G-8 communique? What are the loans that are being disbarred?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:16 IST)
Dear pc, I just learnt that loans from the G-8 had been disbarred. I am awaiting further word. Sumit Ganguly
SRChowdhury (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:14 IST)
The BJP Govt is to be complimented on taking
our nuclear programme to its logical conclusion. They must now ensure that the missile delivery systems are completed also. But their diplomatic management was dismal - I refer to loose cannons from loud mouths like Fernandes, Advani, and Madanlal Khurana. They must realise that as ministers in the government of a country with nuclear capability, sabzi-mandi paan-shop type statements must be left behind.
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:18 IST)
SR Choudhury, I am afraid that I disagree with you. India should freeze the programme in concert with Pakistan at this point.
The deployment of ballistic missiles can be deeply destabilising for a variety of compelling reasons. Sumit Ganguly
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:19 IST)
Suparn, I need to sign off before too long and return to the article that I am writing on the Indian nuclear programme. Sorry about this. Perhaps we can set up another chat in a few weeks when we have a better sense of how the sanctions are shaping up. Best, Sumit Ganguly
shiva (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:10 IST)
Prof: 2 questions: If sanctions hurt Pakistan, is there a good chance that they will sell N-bombs to some Arab friends, like say Saudi Arabia? Second, if other Arab/Muslim nations acquire the bomb, is Israel at risk? Will they probably fight each other?
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:22 IST)
Dear Shiva, That's a real fear. A desperately cash-strapped Pakistan may well consider selling nuclear technology to the highest bidder. This is one of the reasons that I am opposed to this very crude weapon called sanctions. Best, Sumit
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:24 IST)
Dear Suparn, This has been most enjoyable. I would love to do it again on another occasion. However, today for fairly selfish reasons I must call it day. My best regards to all the participants. Sumit Ganguly
SRChowdhury (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:22 IST)
What are your compelling reasons? The nuclear weapon is incomplete without a matching delivery system. This time we must avoid the limbo we placed ourselves in, as in 1974.
Professor Sumit Ganguly (Fri Jun 12 1998 9:27 IST)
Dear SRChoudhury, Ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads on them unlike strategic bombers cannot be recalled once launched. It takes a missile less than four minutes to fly from Amritsar to Islamabad. The possibilities of human and technical errors dog most complex systems. More to the point, in a crisis both missile-armed states would be under considerable pressure to launch pre-emptive strikes to ensure that
their capabilities were not destroyed in a first strike. I could go on but I believe that I have given you the gist of the problem. Best, Sumit Ganguly
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