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Canada experts hopeful of breakthrough

Two Indo-Canadian academics who attended a two-day bilateral India-Pakistan experts conference in New Delhi foresee some kind of breakthrough at the Agra Summit between Indian and Pakistan leaders.

"The Kashmir issue is quite complicated and it will create some difficulties, but I am somewhat optimistic that the two leaders recognize the need to create a process and a framework for dealing with this issue," says Dr. Ashok Kapoor, head of Political Science at the University of Waterloo (Ontario).

"Both sides seem to be willing to reach some sort of agreement on Siachen to build on previous discussions ... both India and Pakistan recognize...that continued confrontation does not produce any gain or bleeding the other side does not help, and now is the time to build some kind of cooperative linkages," he said in a telephone interview.

Dr. Balbir Sahney, Director of the Center for International Academic Cooperation at Concordia University in Montreal does not expect "a quick fix."

However, "something will come out of the summit and that could be economic linkages, certainly academic linkages and there seems to be a lot of enthusiasm about cultural and media linkages."

Both Kapoor and Sahni, who had recently attended a conference on "Developing perspectives in the new millennium" organized by the Indian Council for Social Science Research in Delhi, favour delinking various issues like Kashmir, economic and cultural issues and suggest that each issue be discussed separately.

"Both Vajpayee and Musharraf are under tremendous pressures in their respective countries not to compromise (on Kashmir issue)," said Kapoor, pointing out to Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani's repeated assertions about not giving in on Kashmir.

Musharraf, meanwhile, is under pressure from the Jihadis and Hurriyat to create a tripartite type of situation. But the Pakistani specialists whom Kapoor met during the New Delhi conference "emphasized the need to find some sort of an exit strategy for Pakistan - an exit strategy on the Kashmir issue."

According to Kapoor, this exit strategy has "to be worked out, and my view is that both sides are looking for a good compromise and a framework that may become more realistic, and that is that the LOC is turned into a international border."

That, however, "is not acceptable to Pakistan right now," he admitted.

"It is very clear to me that both sides would still want to maintain their sovereignty over Kashmir. I look at it more as a security question as security is important to both sides," added Sahni. "One shouldn't expect a miracle but one should certainly expect there will be some opening up," he argued.

"the challenge now is to come with the ways of addressing the Kashmir issue. At the same time it is necessary to create some sort of delinking between Kashmir and other areas of cooperation which can be significant," said Kapoor, who has written extensively on the Indo-Pak dispute.

"Musharraf now has the consensus of 15 - 20 corps commanders and is also interested in curbing ISI," he said. "The problem is the local commanders of ISI have lot of freedom on the ground to send people across (the border)."

Kapoor's suggestion to the two leaders on the eve of their Agra summit would be that they should "keep up the process going and to add some momentum, keep looking for constructive solutions, identify areas which are very difficult like Kashmir, create a framework for discussing that and pursue the delinking, as some delinking is possible between Kashmir issue and economic and other issues."

He would also like the Indian and Pakitani leaders not to let a single issue "to dominate or hijack the process and that they should widen the basket of issues."

The two leaders need each other for their own "political future and they know that the cost of continued confrontation is very high, even though some people in Pakistan may still argue that they can continue to bleed India in Kashmir ... ," Kapoor added.

China is not very happy with the summit because use, if India and Pakistan come together and the momentum continues that would defeat the Chinese desire that India should become their junior partner in South Asia, he said.

Sahni, however, does not "expect a quick fix in Agra. I do not expect that the major issue of Kashmir will be resolved but a process will be initiated, a process that will look at a number of things."

The two leaders are at least likely to establish a direct line of communications and the meeting in Agra "is not going to be a futile exercise. There will be no changes but there will be a major change in direction," predicted Sahni.

And this will certainly lessen suspicion between the two countries about each other, he added.

Indo-Pak Summit 2001: The Complete Coverage

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