Commentary/Kanchan Gupta

The Old Man Is In A Hurry!

There is great excitement among Delhi’s chattering classes, the provocation being the recent Congress Working Committee resolution describing the United Front Government’s performance as "unsatisfactory" and expressing the party’s resolve not to "allow the situation to drift further". The last bit, along with the new guidelines issued by the party leadership to cleanse the Congress of the myriad stains that bear testimony to illegitimate money-making by Congressmen, appears to have convinced a number of people that Sitaram Kesri is once again preparing to withdraw support, this time with the purpose of forcing a mid-term election.

On the face of it, Kesri has three good reasons why he should not wait any longer for the inevitable; after all, it was clear from the day the results of last year’s general election were announced that any combination could at best rule for a short while before bringing the curtain down on the 11th Lok Sabha.

The first act of the great Indian political passion play came to an end the day Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government resigned after failing to win the confidence vote on the floor of the House although it had secured an unprecedented people’s support, as evident from opinion polls, during the fortnight it remained in office.

The second act came to an end with H D Deve Gowda being stabbed in the back by his own colleagues and friends, one of whom occupies the prime minister’s office today. The third act is moving towards its anticipated denouement.

Anybody who has been keeping track of Congress affairs knows that although Kesri has technically secured his position by going through the motion of holding party elections and placing his cronies in key party posts, he feels anything but secure in his job. This is not surprising, considering the fact that Sonia Gandhi’s shadow, much like Banquo’s ghost, continues to loom over him, peering over his shoulders as he contemplates the next move on the chessboard of Congress politics. By forcing a mid-term election now, he hopes to free himself of 10, Janpath’s shadow, provided, of course, he is able to lead the Congress if not to victory, at least to the Treasury benches.

Those close to Kesri claim that he is convinced of two things -- first, that the Congress’s chances will not necessarily improve if more time is given to the United Front government; and, second, the Congress will emerge as the largest single party in a mid-term poll, which will leave the non-BJP group, non-Left parties with no other alternative but to either back a minority Congress government or join the government as allies. Once Kesri is enconsced in the prime minister’s office, he can get rid of Sonia Gandhi’s shadow, at least for the time being.

However, if Kesri does decide to force an early general election, it will not be entirely dependent on how he rates his party’s chances. This brings us to the second reason: His hand may be forced by the Jain Commission report which is likely to be used by Sonia Gandhi and her cronies in the Congress to their full advantage. There is already a clamour by this section of Congress members to table the Commission’s findings during the winter session of Parliament.

If what is being said about the contents of the report -- that it blames V P Singh and the DMK for Rajiv Gandhi’s killing by LTTE extremists -- then its tabling cannot but bring about intense pressure on the 'unconditional support' that Kesri has affirmed to the United Front Government. The DMK is a member of the United Front and V P Singh is the presiding deity of the Janata Dal; for Kesri to hob-nob with such elements is tantamount to sleeping with the enemy, a sacrilege that would discredit him forever. As much is evident from Kesri’s obvious discomfort over the demand for the report to be tabled.

On the other hand, Sonia Gandhi would be the natural repository for the treacly sentiments that are likely to be unleashed by the Jain Commission’s findings. Given this scenario, Kesri would do a wise thing by pulling the plug now.

The third reason is far removed from politics: The Enforcement Directorate’s investigations, along with the court proceedings into the mysterious foreign funds that flew into Congress coffers during Kesri’s stint as party treasurer as well as the messy affair about a certain doctor’s death, cannot but make things sticky for the Congress president. The combined efforts of a newspaper baron, the Congress president and the prime minister have failed to stall the ED’s investigations. It is anybody’s guess as to what the ED will finally come up with, but it is a guess not worth staking your personal freedom on. This factor would weigh heavily in favour of Kesri pulling out now and forcing an early election.

Having listed Kesri’s reasons for forcing a mid-term election, it would be in order to insist that neither he nor the Congress stands to gain by going to the polls now. There is no evidence to suggest that the Congress’s organisational health is in a better shape today than it was in 1996 when it fared so poorly in the last general election. Or that the party has been able to recover lost ground in the states where it was almost wiped out.

If Kesri really believes he can swing Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in his favour by joining hands with Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav, then the Congress’s loss is the BJP’s gain. For that matter, Kesri would have to be extremely naive to believe that the Congress would pick up additional seats either in the southern states or in West Bengal in a mid-term poll.

Unless there is a dramatic sea-change in the objective conditions prevailing today, and there is a tidal wave in favour of the Congress, it can be said with a degree of certitude that the Congress is likely to end up with fewer seats than it secured in 1996. The net gainer of this further slide in the Congress’s vote will be the BJP. The reason for this is not too difficult to seek: No matter what guidelines are issued by the Congress to wipe out those stains of dirty money-making, the party continues to be seen as a conglomerate of crooks of all shades, responsible for the fall of Indian public life to the appalling depths where it wallows today.

Having declared that if asked to choose between "communalism" and "corruption", he would opt for the second choice, Kesri cannot hope to neutralise this public image of the Congress. On the contrary, he has only strengthened the popular view that the Congress has lost the moral right to rule.

If he had not been so blind to the writing on the wall, the near-absolute chances of a second defeat would have been the single reason for Kesri to put aside his three reasons for forcing a mid-term poll. After all, his good friend Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral has not done anything that could be construed as either anti-Congress or anti-Kesri.

On the contrary, he has gone out of his way to ensure that the Congress and its president, as well as the lady who resides at 10, Janpath, are spared further ignominy through investigations and disclosures. Never mind the posturing by some members of the United Front that if forced into a corner over the tabling of the Jain Commission report, the government will retaliate by tabling the Bofors papers.

What is of greater significance is Gujral refusing to grant permission for the prosecution of former bureaucrats who appear to have had a finger in the Bofors pie. Indeed, the Bofors files have been with the prime minister for four months now. During the special session of Parliament, Gujral made a solemn promise that he would clear all pending CBI files within a fortnight. But like all his other solemn promises, this one, too, has been broken.

With friends like these, Kesri need not risk entering into a battle with his political enemies. If he persists with forcing a mid-term poll, then he would only be proving that Deve Gowda was not incorrect in describing him as an "old man in a hurry".

EARLIER REPORT: Kesri gears up for mid-term poll

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