Commentary/Vir Sanghvi
1997: A year of political upheavals, midnight dramas, sudden
resignations and declarations of withdrawal of support
That leaves the cow-belt chieftains, all of whom have their own
problems. Perhaps Mulayam can be won over if Kanshi Ram is kept
out or vice versa. It maybe that Kesri's old equation with Laloo
Yadav will lead to an alliance with the Bihar unit of the JD.
But, look at it in perspective. If you have a government headed
by Sitaram Kesri, peopled by the supporters of Mulayam Singh Yadav,
Laloo Yadav, Kanshi Ram, etc., then what you have -- in effect
-- is a United Front government by another name. It will bear
no resemblance to a Congress government headed by Rajiv Gandhi
or even by Narasimha Rao.
And yet, this is the principal prospect of political change in
1997. There will be political upheavals, midnight dramas, sudden
resignations, declarations of withdrawal of support and yet, at
the end of the day, all we will get is the same cast of characters
in slightly different costumes.
You'd have to be very naive to believe that once such a government
is installed, things will be much better in 1997 than they were
in 1996.
The finance minister has repeatedly emphasised that the economy
is not a bad way. His civil servants have asserted that there
is no recession. Perhaps they are right.
But can anyone disagree with Dr Manmohan Singh when he says,
'There is no doubt that people lack confidence in the economy
at present'? Or when he adds, 'The general view abroad
is that India has given up on the reforms... and you know, the
world will not wait for us'?
Manmohan says the crisis of confidence is not Chidambaram's
fault. It is the consequence of political uncertainty; of the
compulsions of a coalition; and of the failure of the political
leadership to take tough decisions.
This is unlikely to change as long as the United Front is in office.
It now seems as though H D Deve Gowda has followed Rajesh Pilot's
lead and decided to do some suicide bombing of his own. His message
to his coalition partners is: Don't let the Congress take over;
if we go we'll take this Lok Sabha with us. In other words, prepare
for a general election.
The last thing India needs is another election. We do not need
the false promises that Deve Gowda will make in the run-up to the polls
or the reckless spending that his government will indulge in as
it attempts to win over the voters. Moreover, there is no guarantee
that another election will throw up a stable government. As it
has demonstrated in UP, the Indian electorate can be remarkably
stubborn and unwavering.
So what would work? I have no idea. By my guess is that a Congress
government headed by Manmohan Singh would at least restore confidence
in the economy and prove that the anti-corruption shenanigans
of the last 12 months have not been in vain.
Perhaps Manmohan lacks the political savvy required to manage
a minority government. But it is better to have an honourable
failure headed by an honest man than a government of geriatric
has-beens, turncoats and cynical regional chieftains with no commitment
to India's future. And far better to make a go of this Lok Sabha
than to go in for another election.
Alas, that does not seem about to happen. And 1997 does not hold
out the prospect of any great improvement on 1996.
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