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BJP has an edge in UP

As the election approaches, all eyes are again on Uttar Pradesh.

With its quota of 85 Lok Sabha members, the state is expected to play a key role again in the formation of the next government at the Centre.

Though it is too early to predict the political alliances that will eventually take shape, the present scenario indicates that they would be no different from those of the 1996 election.

As for the poll outcome, analysts predict another hung Parliament, with the UP situation being no different. ''There could be only a marginal difference in the tally of various parties,'' says social scientist Surendra Singh. The BJP, however, has an edge, he said.

With both Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party vice-president Mayawati ruling out any kind of rapprochement, the BJP seems to be in a stronger position.

Significantly, both the SP and the BSP had polled 20 per cent votes each during the last elections in UP. The BJP secured 32 per cent of the votes, which earned it as many as 52 Lok Sabha seats. The SP and the BSP, however, managed to get only 16 and 6 seats respectively. As for the other parties, the Congress got five, the erstwhile Tiwari Congress two, the Janata Dal two, the Samata Party one and independent one.

Disagreeing with the contention that the BJP has an advantage, Mayawati said her party would romp home by ''splitting the SP and the BJP votes''. Fielding non-dalit candidates, the BSP plans to attract upper castes while retaining its electoral base of dalit votes.

Mulayam Singh, on the other hand, is playing his cards very shrewdly. While remaining with the United Front, he plans to retain his party's independent identity. At his 'Jan-Chetna Rally' in Chandauli near Varanasi on the UP-Bihar border on December 7, that marked the launching of his election campaign, he clearly indicated that his party would tie up with the Congress.

''The Samajwadi Party is strong enough to give a fitting reply to the BJP. Yet it would be pertinent to rope in the Congress in the battle against communal forces,'' he said. ''The Congress should not be treated as an untouchable.''

Mulayam Singh, however, ruled out any truck with the BSP.

Ridiculing the stand, Mayawati said, ''He seems to be harping on this as if we have sought an alliance with him. In fact, he was the one who has been sending feelers. As far as we are concerned, Mulayam heads a regional party. We are a national party.''

Mayawati is in no mood to make friends with anyone in UP. ''We have learnt our lesson and we find no political party is trustworthy,'' she told the media. ''Moreover, such alliances benefit our partners more than the BSP.

''This is why everybody is coming to meet manayavar Kanshi Ramji -- whether it is Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral, senior Congress leaders Arjun Singh, Madhavrao Scindia or Rashtriya Janata Dal president Laloo Prasad Yadav.''

Though the BSP plans to go it alone in UP, the party is willing to forge alliances in other states.

As for the Congress, it continues to bank on the BSP and the SP. And two distinct groups have emerged in recent times -- one led by Congress vice-president Jitendra Prasad trying to woo the BSP and the other, headed by UP unit chief Narain Dutt Tiwari, keeping Mulayam Singh in good humour.

Vowing to fight the communal forces, both Congressmen have made it clear that the party would trash out alliances which would enable it realise this goal. ''Any disunity among the secular forces would mean an indirect boost to communal forces,'' Tiwari said.

That is exactly what the BJP is looking forward to. Senior party leader and former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee told Rediff On The NeT, ''Far from coming together, the United Front is going on splitting. We are bound to gain on this account.''

Despite Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Kalyan Singh's oft-repeated assertion that the BJP would go to the poll along with its allies, the fact remains that the BJP has to virtually go it alone. For, its ally, the Samta Party's influence is confined to eastern UP.

As a result, it is difficult to fathom how the party hopes to bulldoze its way into the bastion of its key rivals -- the Samajwadi Party, the BSP or the Congress.

EARLIER REPORT:
SP rules out alliance with Congress

EARLIER INTERVIEW:
The question of SP leaving the UF does not arise: Amar Singh'

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