In a close race to power in four states, a pre-poll survey released Friday today shows Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party tied in Rajasthan but the saffron party having an edge in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
The opinion poll survey conducted by The Week/C Voter gives both the ruling BJP and the Congress between 94 and 106 seats in the desert state in a house of 200. The BJP at present has 120 seats. The survey provides for an average three per cent margin of error.
In Madhya Pradesh, the survey puts the ruling BJP ahead with 118 to 128 seats compared to Congress' 100 to 110 seats. In the existing 228-member assembly, the saffron party has 171 seats.
The survey said opposition BJP is expected to bag between 36 and 42 seats for the Delhi Assembly in a House of 70. The ruling Congress may get 28 to 34 seats, it added.
In BJP-ruled Chattisgarh, the survey said the saffron party may get 44 to 52 seats followed by Congress with 38 to 46 seats. The BJP has 50 seats in a house strength of 90.
In the chief ministerial stakes, voters covered in the survey showed preference for Sheila Dikshit over BJP's V K Malhotra. 37 per cent favoured the incumbent chief minister while Malhotra was preferred by 22 per cent of those surveyed.
The survey also showed that 52 per cent respondents want Dikshit back as chief minister though 56 per cent wants her party out.
A majority of respondents in all the four states surveyed said they would vote against the Congress if general elections were held now though only those in MP were unhappy
with Manmohan Singh's performance as prime minister.
The survey indicates an advantage to the BJP in terms of the number of states it can hope to retain or capture. But, the party will also have to contend with reduced vote share and seat share everywhere except Delhi.
The survey said 43 per cent of the respondents rated incumbent Vasundhara Raje as the best chief minister while 32 per cent said Congress' Ashok Gehlot was the next best.
48 per cent of the respondents in Rajasthan also said that the BJP will not benefit from the Gujjar deal while 32 per cent felt otherwise.
In MP, 31 per cent of those surveyed said Shivraj Singh Chauhan will make the best CM. Previous Chief Minister Digvijay Singh of Congress was a distant fourth.
BJP's Raman Singh was marginally ahead of Ajit Jogi in people's choice as best chief minister of Chhattisgarh.
