"Americans are the biggest stakeholders in Pakistan. The way things are moving it seems that Asif Zardari and President Pervez Musharraf will bail out each other, eventually," said Anand Kumar Verma, former chief of Research and Analysis Wing, India's external intelligence agency.
He says that impeachment and incarceration were the two possibilities staring at Musharraf in case the Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim Legue-Nawaz got a two-thirds majority but now, Musharraf will have a room for manipulation and the Americans to will not be too unhappy with the end-result.
However, Kuldip Nayar, India's veteran Pakistan expert, told rediff.com, "The elections have been good in many ways. I don't see how Musharraf can save himself in a long run. Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Kyani has called back 160 officers from civilian post. Islamists candidates have lost the election. The helpless common people of Pakistan are feeling powerful. These are not small gains."
Importantly, Nayar says, "Nawaz Sharif will now try to take place of Benazir Bhutto. He will play people's politics. He will come out on the streets to oust Musharraf, if he strikes a deal with the PPP."
In coming days while consolidating his power base in Punjab, Sharif will try to become a pan-national leader. He will buy time to expand his agenda and allow PPP to face the music of governance in difficult times.
Nayar firmly thinks that Sharif's overtures to Islamists before the elections will be kept in control by his alliance with the secular Awami National Party. He said that notwithstanding the American gameplan, the issue of restoration of judges will become the bone of contention in Pakistan politics in the coming days.
Sharif had asked his party's candidates to swear to fight for an independent judiciary if elected and he is unlikely to budge on the issue.
Nayar thinks that PPP will form the government. He says, "Zaradari should stay away from the top post. Remember, the victory is of the PPP and not Zaradari's."
Talking about Musharraf's fate, Verma said, "With the help of the Pakistan Army and US, the PPP leadership, beholden to the US, he will play ball. In good time, Musharraf will gracefully step down making the way for another general or a puppet civilian serving US interests."
