The next 48 hours will be very crucial for Pakistanis, who taught a harsh lesson to their rulers and prospective rulers in the recent elections.
It is too early to predict who will become the prime minister of Pakistan, feels a senior editor of Geo Television. "The biggest apprehension for civil society in Pakistan is that Americans are trying to convert the victory of the people into a defeat by forcing the Pakistan People's Party to support President Pervez Musharraf," he said.
Because of the maneuvering by the United States in Islamabad in the post-election scenario, the coming few hours will probably turn out to be more significant than even the election itself.
One of India's most seasoned diplomats on Pakistan, who has had extensive and deep interaction with the Pakistani elite, told rediff.com, "Americans are likely to encourage a deal between the PPP and Musharraf. But we will have to wait and watch."
Speaking on the situation in Pakistan after the elections, he said, "Asif Zardari has emerged as a key figure, although at the national level his party PPP has not done as well as expected."
"The most important factor is that compared to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, the PPP has emerged as a pan-national party. It will form the government in alliance with other partners in all the provinces except, may be, Baluchistan. PPP has a simple majority in Sindh. In an impressive show in Punjab, the PML-N won 102 seats and the PPP has secured 76 seats. Nawaz Sharif's PML-N did not win any seats in Sindh. In the North West Frontier Province, the PPP has secured 17 seats while the secularist Awami National League got 29 seats," he said.
The diplomat said that thankfully, India is not at all involved in Pakistan's election process or behind the scenes maneuvering.
He dismissed the fear that National Security Advisor M K Narayanan's adverse remark on slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto may have created bad blood between India and the PPP.
Narayanan had said in an interview, while the former premier was still alive, "Benazir's track record is not necessarily something that would make us believe that she will follow to the letter and the spirit of what she has said."
The diplomat pointed out that the Indian government had planned to send External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee to attend Bhutto's funeral in Sindh, but the Pakistan government was reluctant to receive foreign dignitaries due to security concerns.
"India is on a good wicket with Asif Zardari , Nawaz Sharif and Musharraf," he said.
The Indian assessment is that if the PPP sticks to its position on Kashmir and the Indo-Pak peace process, there will be a convergence of views between the party and Musharraf, which will be less hawkish and more practical.
Such an approach will also be supported by the United States. A post-election alliance between Musharraf and the PPP, with US backing, could be beneficial to India if the two sides can control jihadi terrorism. But the corollary remains that US involvement in any deal provokes jihadis, which in turn jeopardises Indian security.
Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban and other jihadi groups strongly oppose Musharraf and the PPP, who are perceived as 'US stooges'. Also, the Pakistani people have made it clear through Monday's election that they are against the pro-US stance of the Pakistan establishment.
Some Indian experts have expressed concern that if Musharraf and the PPP decide to strike a deal with US backing, cases of jihadi terrorism will multiply in Pakistan and its destructive impact could spill over to India.
This explains Nawaz Sharif's strong remarks against Musharraf and his repeated calls for the restoration of democracy. Till now, Sharif has avoided taking any official position on relations with India.
In his keenness to distance himself from Musharraf and court the disgruntled officers in the armed forces, Sharif might adopt a more hawkish position on bilateral ties.
He has avoided giving an impression of being too friendly towards the US and favours a more nuanced co-operation with the superpower.
The diplomat maintained that Musharraf is still the man to watch out for. "One should not underestimate Musharraf. He has already said that he would not resign. So, better wait and watch," he said.
