Inspite of the confidence-building measures, Pakistan would remain a primary threat to India, Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal S P Tyagi said on Friday.
"Though things have changed a great deal in the last three years between the two nations, the security dimension remains the same, terrorist infrastructure still exists in Pakistan and there is no reduction in cross-border terrorism," he said, at the B C Joshi Memorial Lecture at Pune University, while speaking on the 'Role of the Indian Air Force in the changing regional security environment'.
"Pakistan would remain a major threat and we cannot assume that the peace process is firmly entrenched. Terrorist threats and attacks continue to be regular phenomena, indicating that the infrastructure for terrorism in Pakistan and PoK is still very active," the Chief of Air Staff said.
Identifying China as another security and defence threat to India, Air Chief Marshal Tyagi said, "The capabilities of China should figure in our matrix of security planning because I see Chinese weapons in our neighbourhood. China's strategic encirclement of our country is already well under way and this would only lead to more problems for us in future.
China is more likely to view us as a regional economic threat and perhaps would be forced to attempt to stem our growth and influence in the region," he added.
"While describing Pakistan and China as threats to India, it does not mean that we are going to go to war with these two
neighbouring countries," he added.
Another aspect to be considered is that China would not like to see its Asian peers - Japan and India - securing the United Nation's Security Council's permament membership. Thus, in opposing Tokyo's bid, China would automatically ensure that India's candidacy is denied, the Chief of Air Staff said.
"Gone are the days when our planning was straighforward. We have got to be prepared for anything from low-intensity wars and proxy wars to all-out wars," he said.
"Another area of concern is the non-traditional threats like ecological imbalance, water scarcity, population explosion and migration, to national security. India has a military strategy but it is a diffused one. There is a system in place. Otherwise we would not have come this far, but we have to become more articulate," Air Chief Marshal Tyagi stated.
He said India is on a growth path - "Growth can come when there is stability and this can only be ensured by military strength, which no country can grow without."
"The size of our economy has doubled since 1991 and is expected to double again by 2010. This has made India more energy hungry. Beyond our immediate region, we have vital interests in the Gulf and South-East Asia. Being an important source of energy, the Gulf forms part of our strategic neighbourhood. In fact, energy concerns would be a major problem for both China and India," he said.
"In today's world ideology has taken a back seat and economy has become the buzz word, because of which India has begun to be noticed. Now geo-economics is overshadowing geo-politics," the Air Chief Marshal said.
Stressing the importance of air command during war, he said, "Whether it was the 1947-48 war, 1965 war, 1971 operations or the Kargil wars with Pakistan, the air power had played a crucial role. The only time when we did not use air power that was in the 1962 war with China, and we suffered a massive defeat."
Tyagi said future wars would not be long-drawn affairs, but limited to a particular geographical territory because of global pressures, inter-linkages and inter-dependences amongst the nations.
When India enhances its strategic boundaries, the role of the IAF would grow and in such a situation it must look to increase its strategic reach through flight refueller aircraft. The IAF has acquired six aerial refuellers and have immediate plans of acquiring six more, he added.
"As a long-term strategy, we are planning to reduce the typpe of fighters in our inventory to three to four. The IAF has already procured the SU-30 and would be inducting the LCA in the next five years; it has been given the go ahead to buy 126 fighters," he said, emphasising that, in some circumstances, numbers are an important factor.
The IAF is also buying 80 helicopters and contemplating joint production of a 15-tonne transport aircraft. Besides, the it is in the process of acquiring improved sensors that include AWACs by 2007, five Aerostats and Air Defence missiles, he said, adding MiG21, Mig27 and Jaguar have been upgraded while upgradation of Mirage is in the pipeline.
