Search the Internet          Tips

US urged to step up Indo-Pak peace efforts

Ela Dutt in Washington

The Bush administration must focus on modernising political and social institutions in Pakistan or face the possibility of growth of terrorist elements, a leading US think tank has cautioned.

The thorny issue of Jammu and Kashmir also figures in a publication released on Tuesday by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Conflict in Kashmir could lead to a major India-Pakistan clash, the report titled To Prevail: An American Strategy for the Campaign against Terrorism warns and urges the administration to step up discreet efforts for peacemaking between the two South Asian rivals.

"Such an incident could escalate into an India-Pakistan confrontation, destabilising Pakistan and dragging the US into a crisis management operation under very unfavourable circumstances," it says.

Consequently, taking an active interest in Pakistan's own stability is needed more now than ever before, it urges.

"A split in the (Pakistani) army or a radical shift in government policy could lead to the export of nuclear materials or know-how. A weaker Pakistani state is more likely to be a haven -- wittingly or not -- for future terrorists with global ambitions," the report warns.

According to the authors, "The Pakistan government is unlikely to be strong enough to eliminate the militant groups in the near future" that threaten peace and stability in Kashmir.

Washington will be pressing Islamabad to cooperate in two competing areas -- the future of Afghanistan and the future of Kashmir, it notes.

"We need to continue to deepen our relationship with India. It's a key part of our policy," co-author Michele Flournoy told Indo-Asian News Service.

"But the primary change will be in our policy towards Pakistan. We need to work with Pakistan toward modernisation -- of the state -- a state that provides more opportunities for true political participation for its population, and true economic development that creates opportunities for the population. At the same time we will expect Pakistan to take a harder line against those that support terrorism or look the other way on terrorism," Flournoy emphasised.

Pakistan wants a dominant role in filling the power vacuum in Afghanistan, where Washington wants a stable leadership in Kabul. "Pakistani efforts to pick a favourite may well undercut this (US) goal," it says.

Kashmir presents two problems, the publication notes, the first concerning Pakistan-based groups that are using violence in Kashmir, several of whom are on the Bush administration's list of organisations whose assets were frozen in the US.

"For Islamabad, US attention to these organisations threatens the firewall that Pakistan wants to keep between the anti-terrorism campaign and militant activities in Kashmir."

However, not being able to control these groups could lead to an India-Pakistan military clash, the book warns, calling the October 1, 2001 bombing outside the Kashmir state assembly in which 38 people died an ominous sign.

"So we should be taking a hard line on terrorism," Flournoy said. However, she said, "It depends on the interpretation of terrorism. There will be pressure on Pakistan to distance itself from organisations like the Al Qaeda. Now, the tricky part comes on how you define the Kashmir groups -- how much of it is terrorism and how much is insurgency," she said.

Washington has few direct requests for New Delhi at this juncture, the book notes. It is sharing intelligence, strengthening ongoing anti-terrorism cooperation, but the US "would also greatly welcome a cooling of tempers and rhetoric between India and Pakistan. The early indications are not encouraging."

New Delhi is keen to minimize US relations with Pakistan, whereas Washington sees this time as clearly one to pursue a relationship.

"The US should launch a serious diplomatic effort to bring India, Pakistan and Kashmiris into a peace process once the immediate Afghan military operations are concluded," the authors say, but this will not bear fruit quickly and must be done "quietly, creatively, and persistently".

Promoting peace in Kashmir may be distinct from the anti-terrorism campaign for Washington, "but as long as the Kashmir issue festers, it will feed India-Pakistan hostility and a create potential new nest from which global terrorists will hatch and take flight".

Indo-Asian News Service

Back to top

Tell us what you think of this report