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During his proposed visit to New Delhi, Pakistan's chief executive General Pervez Musharraf is likely to try and make a statement similar to the Lahore Declaration, in an attempt to project a liberal, internationally-acceptable image, according to sources in the Indian government.
The military ruler will insist on discussing Kashmir, demand the inclusion of the Hurriyat Conference in talks, but his path-breaking visit to India will not achieve anything substantial, initial analysis by Indian intelligence agencies and senior defence officials point out.
Initial inputs available from Islamabad and analysis by the government's in-house experts show that the Indian establishment does not have high hopes about the entire visit. "But it would help us in breaking the ice," said a senior Union government official.
"Probably, the visit might end up as a whimper with Musharraf gaining a little international respectability," admits another senior government official closely involved in external intelligence.
Officials closely monitoring Pakistan say that the military ruler will persuade Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajapyee to issue a New Delhi declaration where the two proclaim their intention to bring lasting peace in South Asia.
"Both of them have a common uniting factor. While Vajpayee wants to go down in history as the man who solved the Kashmir problem, Musharraf wants to discard the image of being a trouble maker in the region," says an official. Musharraf suffers from acute image crisis: he is accused of plotting the Kargil intrusion, and of overthrowing the democratically-elected government, which wanted peace.
Government sources said during his visit to New Delhi, General Musharraf will "insist on something to give him a statesman-like image, one that could match that of Vajpayee's." And the best bet is a high-profile declaration. But indications available from the government is that it is not yet ready for such a statement.
While it is yet not clear on what lines India would like to keep the discussions going, it is clear that the Pakistani side would insist on discussing the Kashmir issue, which they consider central to the problems between the two countries.
The chief executive would also demand that the Hurriyat be included in talks. According to sources, the Pakistan high commission in New Delhi has assured the APHC leadership that their importance would not be diluted.
India believes that the talks between Vajpayee and Musharraf are bilateral and the APHC does not figure in it. However, a section in the government feels that it would not be harmful to allow some APHC leaders to call on General Musharraf while he is in New Delhi. "Anyway they are in touch with the Pakistan High Commission. So what difference will it make if they meet Musharraf," said a senior government functionary.
India is expected to demand that Musharraf reign in militant groups operating from Pakistan. Indications are that Musharraf is sounding out some groups, whose proliferating numbers are anyway of concern to him.
According to inputs from Pakistan, smaller jehadi groups have been told that if they are not able to "work effectively on the ground" they will have to merge with the larger groups. Groups such as Al Badar are believed to be in the list.
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