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Deeper sinks the      Congress Bee in Sonia' bonnet The battle for Fort      George and William Views from the other      side Thus goes the Congress

The changing equation

This is the most curious election I have ever seen in Kerala. (Yes, I am old enough to remember every poll since the state was constituted!) Normally, each election would be a straight fight between the Congress and the Communists. Today, something has changed.

Why is the CPI-M afraid of the BJP? Why does it describe it as "Enemy Number One" even in Kerala, rather than giving that honour to the Congress party?

The answer lies in the CPI-M's best-kept secret: as far as Kerala is concerned, it is the Big Brother of the Left Democratic Front which woos the Hindu vote. Hindus constitute only 55 per cent of the electorate in Kerala, yet 78 per cent of the Marxists' votes come thanks to the Hindus. It was no coincidence that the late EMS Namboodiripad started quoting Swami Vivekananda so copiously starting in the late 1980s.

So what happens when a new party comes on the scene, one that is popularly identified with Hindus? Let us be honest: wouldn't you start panicking in that situation? And that, of course, is precisely what the CPI-M is doing.

Call it a by-product of polarisation if you like, but there will be only two major political formations in each state as time goes by. (Please note that I speak of "formations" rather than of parties.) In the long run -- and I enter the caveat that this is only an informed guess -- I believe that the United Democratic Front has a better chance of surviving.

You could describe this as a purely theoretical argument, and you would be right for the most part. If pressed for proof, however, I would direct you to the north of Kerala.

Something very strange happened in the assembly election of 1996 in the Manjeshwar and Kasargode constituencies. The candidates supported by the Left -- M Ramanna Rai and N A Nellikunnu -- came neither first nor second in the final list. The Muslim League, a constituent of the Congress-led United Democratic Front won the seats. But it was V Balakrishna Shetty and K Madhava Herala of the Bharatiya Janata Party who came second!

The margins of defeat were deeply heartening (if you happen to be a BJP supporter) or deeply worrying (if you back the Marxists). The BJP lost Manjeshwar by a measly 2,300 votes or so, and Kasargode by roughly 3,800. On the other hand, the margin between the BJP and the CPI-M was almost 10,000 in Manjeshwar and roughly 6,000 in Kasargode. The Left Democratic Front will have to work much harder just to come second than the BJP would to win a seat.

Manjeshwar and Kasargode also lend strength to another suspicion. I believe the BJP is actually cutting into the Left's votes rather than merely benefiting from anti-Left votes. That is, people who once used to vote for the Left are now voting for the BJP instead of transferring their votes to the Congress.

(The Congress, in my opinion, has succeeded in retaining its share of votes. Whether or not this is because of some inherent strength or because of clever alliances is an issue to be debated another day.)

As noted above, Hindus constitute 55 per cent of the electorate. The other 45 per cent is split almost equally between Christians and Muslims. There is no reason to believe that this large body of voters shall opt for the BJP. Equally, there seems to be little liking for the Marxists. Even the most ardent Leftist does not state that more than half of the non-Hindu vote shall fall to the Left Democratic Front. Half of 45 per cent is 22.5 per cent.

Now, take another look at the figures from Manjeshwar and Kasargode. The Left got 24.9 per cent in the first, and 26.47 per cent in the second. That is more or less what I said. Think what could happen if that process was repeated across Kerala! That is a nightmare for the Marxists...

Will it happen in this election? I doubt it. It would be foolish to take two constituencies in the northern extremity of the state and extrapolate the results. Do not forget, by the way, that northern Kerala abuts Karnataka, a state where the BJP is a major player. As such, there is bound to be some effect on neighbouring areas in Kerala.

That is cold comfort for the Left Democratic Front. It sees the BJP adopting classic pincer tactics; if northern Kerala gives the Marxists cause for worry, then so too does the southern tip. Again, I draw on the lessons of a previous poll, this time in 1999.

O Rajagopal, the BJP's candidate in Thiruvananthapuram put up a surprisingly good fight. He came third, but still finished with more than 150,000 votes -- which was more than the margin between the victorious Congress and the Left. The difference between first and second was just over 11,000 votes -- less than a tenth of what the BJP won. Arguably, it was the BJP that made all the difference in this prestigious seat.

This, the CPI-M fears, is the gameplan of the BJP. It will concentrate on the northern and southern tips of the state, and then slowly move in to the heartland. I should add, by the way, that the BJP too understands precisely where it stands. Has anyone taken a look at which constituency the BJP's local unit president, Padmanabhan, has chosen for himself? Here is a clue: look to the north of the state!

It would be foolishly presumptuous to say that this assembly election marks the end of the Left in Kerala. But yes, I do believe that this is the beginning of the end!

T V R Shenoy