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Congress MLAs key to Nitish, Laloo's gameplan

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

Both the National Democratic Alliance and the RJD-CPM combine this morning commenced moves to enlist the support of the 23 Congress legislators, which is vital for both the sides.

"We have the support of the Congress and others. In fact, the Congress's letter of support is in the possession of Bihar governor Vinod Pande. Nitish Kumar has fewer supporters than we do, and we are confident the RJD alliance will come back to power," said RJD MP Raghuvansh Prasad Singh who has become his party's spokesman during the ongoing 'Bihar crisis'.

However, Samata Party chief Jaya Jaitley differs with this prognosis. "We had told you we will be forming the government in Bihar and we have done so, despite the strident claims of Laloo Prasad Yadav and his cohorts," she pointed out. "The Nitish Kumar government will prove its majority on the floor of the house."

The statements of Singh and Jaitley indicate that their parties had commenced wooing the 23 Congress legislators.

While RJD leaders, including Laloo, are outwardly expressing the confidence that they have the letter of support from the Congress party's 23 legislators, the looming spectre of some Congress MLAs crossing over to the NDA cannot be wished away.

Already, political circles in the capital and Patna are agog with talk that 21 of the 23 Congress legislators are poised to switch sides. Even the Congress high command seems to be unsure whether all the 23 legislators would do its bidding -- ie, support the RJD-CPM combine.

Vociferous Bihar Congress MLAs like Veena Shahi, Anil Sharma, Bishwamohan Sharma, state working president Ram Jatan Sinha and leader of the Congress legislature party Ramashray Prasad Singh have repeatedly warned the party high command that it should not have any truck with the RJD under any circumstances because they had got the vote on an anti-RJD platform. The 11 party legislators elected from South Bihar are especially opposed to supporting the RJD because of Laloo's opposition to the creation of the Jharkhand state.

Ominously for the RJD, many of these Congress legislators have already warned the central leadership that they would cross over to the NDA if the party supports the RJD.

This is the Achilles heel in the Congress camp which the NDA is seeking to exploit. With 153 legislators reportedly snug in the alliance's fold, Nitish Kumar needs only nine more legislators to prove his government's majority in the Bihar assembly.

The RJD-CPM combine in Bihar too is depending on the support of the Congress legislators to topple the Nitish Kumar government. It has calculated that apart from its own legislators, it can count on the support of the 23 Congress MLAs, five of the Bahujan Samaj party, two of the Revolutionary Communist Party and one of the Maoist Communist Centre , taking the overall total to 157 which is four more than the Nitish Kumar government's strength of 153 legislators.

The RJD's calculation is that if the Congress, BSP, RCP and MCC remain intact and the CPI-CPML combine votes against the NDA, the Nitish Kumar government will lose its trial of strength, in which case the RJD will be summoned by the governor to form the government.

As the battle lines between the RJD-led alliance and the NDA begin to be etched, one thing is clear -- the Congress legislators hold the key.

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