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Coastal Orissa holds the key in state polls

Since independence, it's been believed that leaders from this area control the state's affairs.

M I Khan in Bhubaneswar

After polls passed peacefully in western and some parts of southern Orissa, where the Bharatiya Janata Party-Biju Janata Dal combine gained a clear edge, now it's the turn of coastal Orissa, where almost half the 147 assembly seats are situated.

Since independence, it's been believed that leaders from this area control the state's affairs.

The four districts, namely Cuttack, Puri, Ganjam and Balasore, have as many as 69 out of 77 assembly seats that will go to the polls on February 22.

Cuttack alone is known as political capital of Orissa because it has produced the leaders who have ruled state politics. In the last five decades it has produce leaders like Harekrushna Mahtab, Biju Patnaik, J B Patnaik, Rabi Ray, Srikant Jena and expelled Biju Janata Dal leader Bijoy Mahapatra.

"Most of the state chief ministers come from Cuttack," says a political observer. BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik, who is most likely to become the next chief minister of the state, may live at Naveen Nivas in Bhubaneswar but is contesting assembly elections from the Hinjali seat in Ganjam district.

In the last five assembly elections, the electorate here has behaved most unpredictably. There was undoubtedly a wave in each of these elections but the results were so extreme that no pre-poll calculation could predict them.

Relying on this little factor, the Congress of the area is very optimistic. The Pradesh Congress Committee chief J B Patnaik, who is heading the party's campaign here feels the Congress might do well.

"We will certainly win more seats this time -- more than expected," Patnaik says. But going by the reaction from the locals, this is one election that might see nothing spectacular happening.

The last year super cyclone which hit the coastal belt and devastated it is likely to play an important part in the polls since people are still recovering from the trauma of the cyclone even three months after it passed them by.

The apathy of the Congress in implementing rehabilitation programmes and reconstructing damaged houses have earned it the people's ire. This could tilt the balance in favour of the BJP-BJD alliance.

"People are disillusioned by the political rhetoric and Congress Chief Minister Hemanand Biswal's false promises of relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction," says Subhas Panda, a social activist who has been working with the cyclone-affected people of Jagatsinghpur district in coastal Orissa.

He says the cyclone-affected people are still angry with the Congress because everything is still in a shambles.

The rehabilitation programme has been going slowly, with over 75 per cent of the damaged houses still to be reconstructed. Agriculture and local economy too have still to recover from the shock. Their disillusionment has made some of the people seek a change.

But another factor that could influence the political outcome in the politically-sensitive coastal belt is the recent expulsion of senior politician Bijoy Mahapatra from the BJD and the cancellation of his ticket from his old assembly seat of Patkura in Kenderapara district, by BJD chief Naveen Patnaik. This is one factor that could affect the chance of the BJP-BJD alliance in undivided Cuttack district, including Kenderapara district. Mahapatra is seen as one of the key political figures in the coastal belt with his wide network at the grassroot level.

"Things may become tough for the alliance here," says a political observer. Mahapatra, who has earned some sympathy, is either campaigning for his loyalists contesting as BJD candidates and the rebels and independents in coastal Orissa.

So, despite the expectations of a good BJP-BJD showing, it is a not so easy to predict the outcome here.

In the last assembly elections, the Janata Dal, then headed by Biju Patnaik, failed to do well in the coastal belt. And though there was no Congress wave on here, the party won handsomely.

This area presents a difficult situation for politicians. For instance, the Congress, which annexed 49 and 54 seats respectively in the 1980 and 1985 assembly polls, was reduced to a meagre three in 1990. Suddenly, the Janata Dal's tally had galloped to 59.

This time round once again the coastal districts are in focus not only because of its unpredictability but also because of the crucial contests on here. At stake are the fortunes of some of the key leaders of the two parties.

PCC chief and former chief minister J B Patnaik, a possible Congress candidate for chief minister is contesting from his old seat, Athagarh, in Cuttack district. Ashok Das, president of the Janata Dal (Secular) has preferred to defend the Korie seat in Jajpur district. Traditionally a Janata Dal bastion, a keen fight is expected between him and BJD-BJP combine candidate Sanchita Mohanty. Das has the advantage, now that the Congress is not in the race too.

The help Das provided the locals after the cyclone recently is likely to hold him in good stead.

Basant Biswal, a former deputy chief minister and a powerful minister in Hemanand Biswal's ministry, is seeking re-election from Tirtol, where his strong organisational network has kept him in good stead for the past one-and-a-half decades.

Another senior Congress leader and former Union minister and minister in present Congress government Kanhu Charan Lenka is seeking re-election from Choudhwar assembly seat in Cuttack district.

State finance minister Bhagwat Prasad Mohanty is facing a difficult battle in Kenderapara. Chintamani Samantray, the state assembly speaker, is seeking re-election from Chikiti in Ganjam district.

BJD president and Union minister Naveen Patnaik is contesting from Hinjali assembly constituency..This is incidentally for the first time that Patnaik is contesting for the assembly elections. Earlier, he had contested Lok Sabha elections three times and won. Patnaik is expected to become the next chief minister, going by current indications.

BJD working president Nalinikant Mohanty is also seeking re-election, from his old seat of Rajnagar in Kenderapara district. Besides them, all former ministers of the late Biju Patnaik's government are contesting from the coastal belt as alliance candidates.

BJP state unit president Manmohan Samal is contesting from Dhamnagar assembly seat in Bhadrak district. Other senior BJP leaders like Shayamanand Mahapatra, party vice-president and spokesperson, is contesting from Nilgairi in Balasore district.

Former minister and senior state BJP leader Biswabhusan Harichandan is contesting from Bhubaneswar assembly seat and Bedprakash Agarwal from the Kenderapara assembly seat. Among the interesting independent and rebel candidates in the fray is Arun Dey, a popular figure from Balasore. Dey is a former Communist Party of India MLA who was expelled from his party for hobnobbing with the then ruling Janata Dal.

The presence of PCC chief Patnaik has warmed up the political atmosphere in Cuttack. Patnaik faces a tough fight against BJD candidate Ranendra Pratap Swain.

In Cuttack city, Mustafiz Ahmed, a Patnaik loyalist and former minister under Biju Patnaik, is the candidate. The Muslim community, which comprises a sizeable chunk of the electorate here, could play an important role. The BJP candidate, Samir Dey, who defeated Ahmed last time has also lost his old popularity. Naturally, a keen contest is forecast.

In Cuttack Sadar, the Congress candidate and state minister Bijaylaxmi Sahoo, is also facing a stiff fight from BJP candidate Nayan Kishor Mohanty.

Assembly Election 2000

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