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Threat of violence haunts Manipur

Nitin Gogoi in Manipur

Electioneering for the 60-member Manipur assembly -- slated for February 12 and 22 -- is currently overshadowed by the boycott call given by the underground National Socialist Council of Nagaland.

The NSCN-Issac-Muivah faction, regarded as the most powerful of the insurgent groups in the region, has a dominant presence in the five hill districts of Manipur.

The group, currently observing a ceasefire with the Centre, has called for a boycott of elections in the Naga-inhabited areas till the five-decade-old Naga problem is settled. In the 60-member Manipur assembly, 28 seats fall in the five hill districts. These seats are slated to go to the polls on Saturday.

And yet, with less than a week to go for the voting, there has been no sign of electioneering in these areas. Despite an all-party appeal last week, the NSCN has refused to relent and has in fact hardened its stance by deciding to impose a Rs 3,000 fine on whoever ventured out to vote. It also warned candidates of "dire consequences" if they dared to campaign in the hill areas.

The situation has been further exacerbated by lack of security forces in the insurgency-ridden state. Against a projected requirement of 447 companies of security forces, Manipur currently has only 120-odd companies.

Director General of Police L Jugeshwar Singh admits, "We are really stretched at the moment. Given a huge shortfall in the forces, it is difficult to ensure full-proof security."

Sure enough, there have been several violent incidents in the last fortnight. A Janata Dal-United candidate was killed and at least three ministers in the existing ruling combine have come under attack.

Apart from the boycott call and its fallout, the biggest talking point in Imphal, Manipur's capital, has been the rift between the ruling Manipur State Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The MSCP, a breakaway faction of the Congress which formed the government in December 1997 with the help three MLAs from a regional combine, the Federal Party of Manipur, had allied with the BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections.

Th Chaoba Singh of the MSCP, one of the two Lok Sabha MPs from the state, was inducted into the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government at the Centre because of an alliance between the two parties.

It was, therefore, expected that the two would pool forces for the assembly elections. A fortnight before the poll schedule was announced, however, there was a bitter parting of ways.

Each side blames the other. Chief Minister W Nipamacha Singh says, "The BJP has a big brother attitude. It wanted its cake and have it too. Since it did not agree to uniform norms for seat adjustment, we had no option but to go it alone."

P B Acharya of the BJP counters, "The MSCP was adamant. It was not willing to admit that we have grown in influence. It also forgot that it was because of the BJP that Chaoba Singh got elected and then inducted into the Central ministry. In fact, Chaoba Singh should quit the party and join the BJP if he wants to continue in the ministry."

The BJP is a relatively new entrant to the electoral politics of Manipur. It fancies its chances in the state more than anywhere else in the north-east since 60 per cent of the state's 2.1-million-strong population are Vaishnavites.

It, however, faces an uphill task in view of the surfeit of parties and alliances in the politically volatile state. Indeed, the past 15 years of the state's electoral politics have been marked by unstable governments. There have been seven chief ministers and four different alliances that have ruled the state in the past decade and a half.

Even in the forthcoming elections, there are three main alliances in the fray. Apart from the ruling MSCP-FPM combine, two other combinations are trying to capture power in Manipur.

The Congress, for very long the dominant party in the state, has tied up with the CPI, an influential regional force, the Manipur Peoples Party and JD-S under the banner of the Secular Democratic Front. The BJP has come together with another regional party, the Kuki National Assembly to form the Manipur Democratic Alliance.

All the three combines have their pockets of influence but none of them is expecting a clear-cut majority. Indeed, most leaders are depending on forging post-election equations to capture power. At the moment, however, a threat of violence likely to be unleashed by the insurgents, is engaging the administration's attention.

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