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Signing CTBT now will compromise India

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

Despite the quiet satisfaction at the ministry of external affairs over the United States Senate rejecting the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, officials are being warned not to get euphoric.

Arundhati Ghose, who forcefully represented India at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva in 1996, warned that in some ways the situation was now even more dangerous for India. "Even though the US has not signed the CTBT, there is no way that the Clinton administration will let up the pressure on India to sign the treaty," feels Ghose.

The worry is that should New Delhi ink the CTBT's dotted line, then under the Vienna Law of Conventions, India will be bound by the treaty's terms even if the agreement does not come into force.

"The Vienna Law of Convention states that those who sign a treaty are morally bound by the treaty's provisions, even if not legally. Therefore, it is imperative that we must examine the provisions of the Vienna Law of Conventions before taking any step in that direction," she said.

Article 44 of the CTBT states that unless 44 specified countries sign the treaty, the treaty does not come into force. These 44 countries are those that possess nuclear power stations and include India, Pakistan, China, the US and Russia, all of which have so far not signed and ratified the treaty.

With the US Senate's rejection, it means the treaty cannot come into force. However, Ghose's biggest fear is that the Indian government might now peddle the theory that since the CTBT will not come into force, it will be all right for India to sign the treaty.

"In a way, it is rather silly to sign a treaty if signing it has no value. But perhaps the Indian government might decide to sign on the plea that doing so will help foster Indo-US relations, which are on the upswing," said Ghose.

It should be pointed out that the US has clearly stated that notwithstanding the failure in the Senate, the Clinton administration is committed to getting India and Pakistan to sign and ratify the CTBT.

Moreover, the Indian government has declared that it is working on reaching a consensus on signing the CTBT, and the US Senate's decision has only helped delay the deadline, not destroyed it.

Former foreign secretary Salman Haidar agreed that now there is no pressure to sign the CTBT, but added that it might finally serve the national interest to sign the same. "What is in the national interest keeps changing. A few years ago, it was clearly in the national interest not to sign the treaty, a position that has changed ever since the nuclear tests at Pokhran," he said.

Yet, what worries Ghose is that should India sign now, it would be bound by the treaty while none of the other major powers would be. "If, for whatever reason we do sign, then we cannot carry out any more tests. While the others will be free to do so, especially countries like the US and China. Thus the gap between the haves and have-nots would continue to widen," she claimed.

Ghose clearly believes that the CTBT was brought about to supplement the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which India has not signed on the grounds that it discriminates against India. "Signing the CTBT now while the US and China stay out will complete that process," warned Ghose.

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