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Pawar's alliance could trip both Congress & BJP

George Iype in New Delhi

Even as the three expelled Congress rebels prepare to launch a new party next week, fresh political equations that could considerably damage the electoral prospects of both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress are on the anvil.

Those regional parties that are opposed to Sonia Gandhi's leadership and are at the same time hesitant to join hands with the BJP are all set to team up with the new outfit to be floated by Sharad Pawar, Purno Sangma and Tariq Anwar.

Pawar's supporters said serious talks are on with various regional partners to form a new "broad secular front" that will challenge the BJP and the Congress at the national level.

Thus Pawar, Sangma and Anwar are now engaged in a two-pronged strategy. One, to woo the silent dissenters within the Congress who are opposed to Gandhi's candidature for the prime minister's post. Two, to rope in as many regional allies and secular parties as possible to put together a grand national alliance.

Their calculations are based on the expectation that this new national front could wreck the BJP's recently formed National Democratic Alliance and considerably damage the Congress's efforts to prop up an alliance of like-minded parties.

Already some regional parties like the Samajwadi Party, the Telugu Desam Party, the Trinamul Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party have indicated that they are willing to do business with Pawar and Company on an anti-BJP, anti-Congress platform.

"We expect that the election will once again throw up a hung Parliament. Therefore, a new national alliance led by Pawar could seize power if regional parties come together to support him," a Pawar loyalist told Rediff On The NeT.

He said most regional groups approve of Pawar as a national leader and are willing to accept him as their prime ministerial candidate. "Pawar revolted against Sonia to ensure that he too becomes a potential prime ministerial contender along with her and Atal Bihari Vajpayee," he said.

But the rebels' grandiose plan could fizzle out if the Left parties do not fall in line.

The two major Left parties -- the Communist Party of India and the CPI (Marxist) -- have so far been guarded in their reactions to the drama in the Congress.

The CPI-M still holds the view that Pawar's camp has simply supported the BJP's agenda by raking up Gandhi's Italian origin. "Therefore, at present our party will not think of allying with the new political party floated by Pawar," politburo member Ramachandra Pillai told Rediff On The NeT.

But the CPI has not ruled out a dialogue with Pawar. According to CPI national secretary D Raja, "The policies and programmes of the new party will determine our future strategy."

"We have always supported the idea of a Third Front running the government at the Centre. We would like to wait and watch how the new political equations emerge in the wake of the dissent within the Congress," Raja told Rediff On The NeT.

But many believe that since Pawar maintains an excellent rapport with CPI general secretary A B Bardhan and CPI-M general secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet, he might ultimately succeed in roping the Left parties into his grand alliance.

On Saturday, Bardhan had a lengthy telephonic conversation with Sangma where he is believed to have said the Communists are not averse to the idea of joining hands with Pawar's front as and when it emerges.

Similarly, TDP president and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu is eager to tie up with Pawar's party as he is uncomfortable about having an alliance with the BJP. Naidu is likely to arrive in New Delhi next week to meet Pawar.

Trinamul Congress president Mamata Banerjee, who also recently distanced herself from BJP's NDA, has announced that she is waiting for Pawar's telephone call to join hands with him.

Banerjee's proposition is that all those leaders who have left the Congress should come together to form a new front.

Source said that much before he revolted against Gandhi's leadership, Pawar had secretly informed All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhakam general secretary J Jayalalitha of his plan. Jayalalitha too is said to be ready to tie up with Pawar if her talks with the Congress collapse, as they most likely will.

According to the Pawar camp's initial calculations, a new political front with him in Maharashtra, Sangma in the North-East, Banerjee in Bengal, Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu, Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh and the solid support of the Left Front could upset the BJP as well as the Congress in the next election.

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