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Multi-cornered contests affects chances of clear verdict in Goa

Sandesh Prabhudesai in Panaji

Both the national parties -- the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party -- appear to have an upper hand in the state elections, though it all depends on how they counter the threat posed by the three regional parties and the Congress rebels.

Almost 94 independents pulled out on the last day of withdrawals yesterday. But the sword of Damocles, as represented by 23 rebels, still hangs over the Congress, which has been dominating the 40-member House since 1980. In addition, the BJP has emerged as a strong force for the first time, sidelining regional forces.

The main contestants remaining in the fray, besides both the national parties, are the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, the United Goans Democratic Party and the Goa Rajiv Congress, apart from independents. Parties like the Janata Dal and the left front are irrelevant in the state.

While Alex Sequeira has been elected unopposed from Loutolim, the Congress stronghold from South Goa, both the BJP and the Congress are contesting all the remaining 39 seats. But the MGP, which had ruled the state for the first 17 years, is contesting only 31 seats.

Besides giving tickets to three Congress rebels and accommodating one candidate each from the GRC and the UGDP, the MGP has now also withdrawn its candidates from two constituencies in support of the UGDP candidate and a Congress rebel, both former ministers.

The UGDP, which is stronger only in seven Catholic-dominated pockets of South Goa, has fielded 17 candidates, three among whom are Congress rebels. They have also given a ticket to Suresh Parulekar, the GRC general secretary, to fight against speaker Tomazinho Cardoz. The MGP has withdrawn its candidate here in support of the former.

Rather than concentrating on giving tickets to his own party candidates, Dr Wilfred de Souza's GRC has embraced most of the Congress rebels while fielding 14 candidates against several Congress leaders, including Dr Willy's arch political rival Dayanand Narvekar, one of the aspirants for the CM's post.

With the tourist state witnessing triangular fight only in 14 segments out of 40, predicting results has become extremely difficult. The multi-corner fight in the remaining 25 constituencies is threatening the base of the Congress as well as the MGP, which were the star performers till the last elections held in 1994.

Besides the BJP, which poses a threat to both the Congress and the MGP, candidates fielded by the UGDP, GRC and the Congress rebels may spoil the prospects of both the national parties, which are otherwise in a position to win the seats. If they succeed, a hung Assembly once again becomes inevitable.

Except constituencies belonging to former Congress chief ministers Pratapsing Rane and Luizinho Faleiro, most of the former CMs as well as ministers are facing a multi-corner fight, making it extremely difficult for them to win comfortably.

This includes Congress leaders like Ravi Naik, Dayanand Narvekar, Luis Alex Cardoz, Dominic Fernandes, Sanjay Bandekar, Mauvin Godinho, Wilfred Mesquita, Pandu Vasu Naik and even Churchill Alemao.

It is also not a cakewalk for rebel Congress leader Dr Wilfred de Souza or MGP leaders like Ramakant Khalap and Shashikala Kakodkar. The future of former ministers like Pandurang Raut and Jagdish Acharya, both habitual defectors, is also bleak though they have now come back to their original party -- the MGP.

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