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What made Pawar do it *now*?

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

The question being asked in political circles is not why Sharad Pawar challenged the supremacy of Sonia Gandhi, but why did he do it *now*? Rumours are flying thick and fast on deals being struck and on fronts being floated.

What, however, seems inevitable is that by categorically stating that India must have only a natural citizen (that is, one born in India or whose parents are born in India) as prime minister, Sharad Pawar, Purno Sangma and Tariq Anwar have gone down a path of no return.

What motivated the trio, by themselves an odd group? Sangma is in the United States while Pawar is busy meeting his supporters in Bombay. Tariq Anwar, still in New Delhi, refused to speak on the matter other than say he had made his stand clear.

However, Congress workers and leaders offered their reasons for the action of the threesome.

Sources pointed out that in the recent political crisis, Sharad Pawar had been completely sidelined by Sonia Gandhi, though he was reportedly back in favour after Arjun Singh failed to manage the formation of a Congress government supported by others from the outside.

"He must have been worried that if the Congress did come to power and Sonia became prime minister, even in a coalition, then whatever clout he wields would have been further reduced," said the sources.

Yet, why did Pawar strike now? A Congress leader gloated, "By challenging Sonia Gandhi now, he has done her a favour. Now she will be able to rally all the others, including potential dissenters, around her and has till September to consolidate her position. Pawar should have challenged her in August, just before the election."

The Congress leader admitted that had Pawar spoken up in August, the Congress's electoral prospects would have been damaged irreversibly. Whether the Congress will overcome this challenge remains to be seen, but surely if Pawar chose the present moment to strike, he must have his own reasons.

One factor could be the changing situation in Maharashtra. For all their political enmity, Pawar and former chief minister Manohar Joshi were close acquaintances. Shiv Sena supporters were wont to complain to their top leader Bal Thackeray about how close Joshi was to the Congress leaders. Pawar might have been worried that with a new chief minister, Narayan Rane, in place, his interests in the state might be jeopardised.

"Pawar is not just looking at Delhi, as most of the politicians and media people in the north believe. Much of his motivation is rooted in Maharashtra," said sources.

Pawar's fear was that even if the Congress manages to sweep Maharashtra in the coming election, as many believe likely, he may not have much say in picking the leaders. In such a situation, his base and interests will suffer. But if he were to float a regional party rooted in Maharashtra, he could kill two birds with one stone: He keeps control over Maharashtra, or at least has a major say, and also become an important player in Delhi given that the next election will throw up a fractured mandate.

Another reason for Pawar striking now is because the iron is hot. In that sense, he is right when he said Sonia Gandhi's origin has become an issue and is likely to dominate the election campaign. Congress leaders from Maharashtra are refusing to speak to the press and are keenly watching the situation, since they are the ones most badly affected by the latest crisis.

It is still unclear why Sangma and Anwar chose to support Pawar when even someone like Rajesh Pilot chose to back down at the last minute. According to sources, Sangma is peeved at having been completely sidelined in the party and feels he is better off in a new dispensation.

"He was the former speaker but today he carries no weight. Second, Sangma probably feels that with a Christian Sonia at the helm, he too as a Christian will not be able to rise within the party. After all, how many Christians can simultaneously hold top posts? And third, Sangma sees himself as the top leader of the North-East in Delhi with greater responsibilities," said the sources.

Tariq Anwar is very close to ousted Congress president Sitaram Kesri. Whether his motive was solely revenge for his friend or something more is unclear. One school of thought is that he is keen to emerge as a force within Bihar, his home state. However, with the Congress likely to tie up with Laloo Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal, he felt stymied and saw a bigger role for himself outside of the Congress.

Rumours abound about the three getting together to float a new party, especially if they are expelled from the Congress. Then whom they align with remains to be seen, whether it is with George Fernandes of the Samata Party and Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party as some believe, or create a new front altogether.

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