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Quarrels in LDF may bring Nayanar down

D Jose in Trivandrum

The inter-party and intra-party feuds in Kerala's ruling Left Democratic Front, a coalition led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), may well lead to the fall of the E K Nayanar government.

Speculation is rife that a new political polarisation will take place shortly in the bipolar political scene of the state. Which, observers say, will spell an end to the three-year-old government.

The dissidence in the Janata Dal, the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the Congress (Socialist) has left eight legislators in the wilderness.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front, which has 59 members in the 141-member assembly, is trying to woo them over. But this will still not ensure an absolute majority for the Opposition -- four more legislators are needed to form an alternative government.

A section of the UDF thinks this is not an insurmountable task, considering the growing disenchantment in the four-member Kerala Congress (Joseph). The party championing the interests of farmers has the support of the Church, and is restive over the steep fall in the price of cash crops, especially rubber. Its leadership feels that it will not be able to maintain goodwill among farmers if the government fails to provide relief before the election two years away.

The UDF's calculation is that the Church can influence the Kerala Congress-J. This stems from the fact that a section of bishops has been striving to bring all four Kerala Congress factions together.

A section of the Kerala Congress-J recently merged with the Kerala Congress (Mani), the parent organisation, as a result of the Church's efforts. The Kothamangalam bishop played a major role in bringing together the KCM and KCJ "in the larger interest of the Christian community".

Interestingly, the Congress has agreed to concede the lead to the KCM to form a ministry if the latter is in a position to ensure the required 12 MLAs. Congress Working Committee member and Leader of the Opposition A K Antony is not keen on his party forming a government with support from LDF dissidents, as it is against the political morality he preaches. He, however, is amenable to supporting a government formed by any one of the UDF constituents.

KCM leader K M Mani, whose longstanding ambition is to be chief minister, considers this the most opportune moment. He has reportedly impressed upon Antony that if the UDF can provide better governance in the next two years, it would make its task of winning the next election easier.

Mani is already scheduled to undertake a 'Kerala yatra' from April 11 to May 11 to mobilise support by highlighting "the anti-people policies of the government". The one-month exercise will start from Kasargod and end in the state capital Trivandrum.

The trouble in the well-knit LDF started with Janata Dal nominee and Forest Minister P R Kurup's removal. Kurup, supported by one MLA, has been sitting on the fence since. Though he has not ventured to split the party, he and his MLA are said to be ready to cross over to the UDF.

The situation in the RSP is different. The party has already split: the dissidents, with the support of three MLAs, expelled its nominee and Irrigation Minister V P Ramakrishna Pillai from the legislature party and set up a parallel state committee. The official faction, which has the support of the majority of state committee members, retaliated by expelling A V Thamarakshan and suspending Babu Divakaran, both MLAs.

The third MLA, Baby John, who leads the dissidents, has, however, been spared. The dissidents feel the leadership was afraid to take action against the top leader, who built the party in Kerala, for fear that the cadres would move with the dissidents.

The trouble in the Congress-S is similar. The dissidents, who have the support of two of three MLAs, want Health Minister A C Shanmughadas to step down. The official leadership, which backs the minister, has decided to convene a meeting of the state executive some time next month to discuss the demand. The dissidents have threatened to come out openly against the minister if the matter is not resolved then.

The LDF has so far been siding with the official leaderships of the respective parties, as the coalition was constituted through an agreement among the parties' top committees.

The CPI-M, obviously, has been shaken by the developments. Its emissaries have been working hard to avert a crisis. Nayanar and Cultural Affairs Minister T K Ramakrishnan have already held closed-door meetings with Baby John.

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