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Quakes are unpredictable, says expert

Despite advances in seismic studies, there is no way an earthquake can be predicted, according to Dr S C Shukla, director, seismology department of the Indian Meteorological Department.

Commenting on last midnight's earthquake, which violently rocked the capital and caused residents to run out into the streets, Dr Shukla said its epicentre lay in the Chamoli region of the hills of west Uttar Pradesh.

The quake measured 6.8 on the Richter scale and was of "moderate" intensity. Its epicentre was located at latitude 38.2 North and longitude 79.5 East. Its depth was 30km, Shukla said.

He said Chamoli and the north-eastern states are greatly earthquake-prone. Earthquakes the department has monitored included one registered on December 11, 1958, (6.0) and another on October 19, 1991, which registered 6.5.

He said that while seismologists all over the world know that earthquakes erupt in high-intensity areas (like in Japan and in California in the United States), there is no foolproof way to predict an earthquake.

"That is very difficult to predict because seismologists still don't have the technology for it," Shukla said.

Shukla's department monitored 27 after-shocks following the quake. He said the after-shocks could continue for as long as three weeks, maybe even a month.

Stressing that Delhi is a high-intensity seismic area, Shukla did not discount the possibility of a more severe earthquake. By severe, he meant a quake measuring up to 8.0 on the Richter scale.

Apart from the hilly regions of Uttar Pradesh and the North-East, Shukla said certain parts of Madhya Pradesh and the Andaman and Nicobar islands are also prone to earthquakes.

He said that though there are no hard and fast rules for people to follow to avoid injury during quakes, it is better to reach open spaces, like fields. People should leave high-rise apartments if a quake lasts more than 5-10 seconds, he suggested.

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