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Swamy's reception will bring Sonia and Jaya together

George Iype in New Delhi

A tea-party being hosted by Janata Party president Subramanian Swamy for All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalitha, has fuelled speculation that moves to dislodge the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government have begun earnestly.

Congress sources confirmed on Wednesday that party president Sonia Gandhi will attend Swamy's reception function -- ostensibly meant to work friendship between Sonia and Jayalalitha -- at Ashok Hotel on March 29.

But the first possible meeting between the two women since Sonia became Congress president in March last year, has sent the Bharatiya Janata Party leadership into jitters.

Congress leaders say any successful pact between Sonia and Jayalalitha involves correcting the misgivings that the political compulsions have forced on them in the past one year.

When Sonia plunged in to lead the Congress campaign for the Lok Sabha polls in January 1998, Jayalalitha was foremost among the opposition political leaders to severely criticise her. The AIADMK chief had questioned the competence of 'the Italian-born Sonia' to lead the country stating that the people would not accept her because of her alien background.

Since then both the women have hardly been on talking terms.

But as her disenchantment with the BJP government at the Centre increased, the AIADMK chief has been indirectly praising Sonia, with the latter reciprocating the accolade.

Though BJP leaders claim that the Sonia-Jayalalitha meeting will not result in any change in the shape of the Vajpayee coalition, party strategists have begun talking to their allies including the AIADMK, Trinamul Congress, Samata Party, Akali Dal and Biju Janata Dal, asking for a reassurance of continued support.

Already, an official one-to-one meeting between Vajpayee and Jayalalitha has been scheduled, where the former will try and sort out the problems and demands made by the AIADMK general secretary. Moreover, senior BJP leaders like L K Advani, Pramod Mahajan, Venkaiah Naidu and Jana Krishnamurthi will meet other coalition partners in the coming days to outline the BJP's strategy when Parliament reassembles on April 12.

The BJP's biggest headache is the serious infighting that is raging in crucial allies like the Samata Party, the Akali Dal and the Biju Janata Dal. The party leadership fears that the Congress would be in a better position to demand Vajpayee's ouster if dissidents in these regional parties break off and decide to support Sonia.

After the Haryana Lok Dal, with four MPs, withdrew support to the ruling coalition last month, the Vajpayee government has an effective strength of only 278, which includes outside support from Telugu Desam Party and the National Conference.

Thus, the efforts by Swamy and a section of Congress leaders are now to convince Sonia that the Congress, with the support of Jayalalitha, the Left parties and the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha led by Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav, could easily come to power if the two women so decide.

Though Sonia has not officially delegated any senior party members to negotiate with Jayalalitha in the past one year, efforts have been on among the top Congress and AIADMK leaders for a personal meeting between the two women.

Encouraged by the Third Front's political declarations to ally with the Congress in any anti-BJP formation and the increasing affinity between Sonia and Jayalaitha, Congress leaders are now riding high on the hope that the party will come to power after a gap of nearly three years.

Despite pressure from senior party leaders, Sonia, in the past one year, has desisted from cobbling together a Congress-led coalition even when the Vajpayee government was repeatedly berated by Jayalalitha and Trinamul leader Mamata Bannerjee for bad performance.

Sonia has so far desisted from pulling down the BJP government, arguing that the Congress should re-build the party when it is in the opposition.

But she is personally said to be not interested in ousting the Vajpayee government at this juncture for a number of reasons. First, Sonia suspects that like Vajpayee, no Congress prime minister would be able to comply with Jayalalitha's demands.

Secondly, Sonia is sceptical about the efficacy of leading a loose-knit coalition at the Centre which she suspects would damage the Congress's image.

But despite Sonia's scepticism, many believe the crucial hurdle to a Congress-led coalition could vanish if Sonia and Jayalalitha succeed in building a personal rapport next Monday.

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