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Nawaz Sharief as fall guy

What was Raj Singh Dungarpur's first reaction when India was kicked out of the World Cup? Did he sack the clueless captain or the brash and boastful coach? No, instead he booted Andrew Kokinos, the team's Australian physiotherapist. I suppose he thought the poor man didn't fit in because he was the only one on the squad who was doing his job properly -- the Indian team didn't really have any fitness problem.

But let us not be too harsh on Dungarpur, it is a very human reaction to find a scapegoat when things go wrong. As President Kennedy ruminated in the wake of the Bay of Pigs debacle, "Victory has a thousand fathers, defeat is an orphan." Very true, except that the Pakistan Army is trying to prove that the father of the "orphan" -- the Kargil crisis -- is actually Nawaz Sharief.

To recap, the Pakistanis had three objectives when they started the Kargil operation. First, isolate Ladakh. Second, internationalise the Kashmir issue. Third, drive out the local Shia Muslims and the Buddhists, occupy Kargil, and use it as forward base for future operations.

Now that all three have failed, the High Command in Islamabad wants to find an excuse. Step forward Nawaz Sharief!

The prime minister of Pakistan is not a very popular man at present, thanks to the current economic doldrums in that country. The soldiers have been out for his head ever since last October when he forced General Jahangir Karamat out of office, and installed Parvez Musharraf as army chief of staff over the heads of six senior commanders.

Students of history should note that the last Pakistani prime minister to do such a thing was Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. He hand-picked Zia ul-Haq because he thought the man would be pliable. And everyone knows just how the protege proved his gratitude... So it was a bad omen when Nawaz Sharief too tried his hand at the fine art of supersession.

It is irrelevant to debate Defence Minister George Fernandes's interesting suggestion that Nawaz Sharief might have been kept in the dark by his own commanders. All that should concern us is what steps, if any, he is taking to halt Pakistan's operations. And all that does concern the Pakistan Army is the horrible mess that Nawaz Sharief and his ministers have made in drumming up diplomatic support for Pakistan. Never before has that country been so isolated.

In the process, Sartaj Aziz, Pakistan's floundering foreign minister, has also made some costly errors that could cost his country dearly in the future. First, he made the extraordinary statement that it was up to India to guard its frontiers if it wanted to prevent the incursion of militants -- a clear admission that Pakistan is playing host (at the very least) to such terrorists. The second, possibly graver blunder, was the idiotic attempt to say that the Line of Control had not been delineated -- this gives the Indian Army the perfect excuse to march into Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.

What precisely are Nawaz Sharief's strengths? Well, Pakistan is in such a mess that the Pakistani generals won't like to take over the reins straight away. Justifying a retreat is always bitter medicine. Moreover, Pakistan must negotiate yet again with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- and they will prove hard taskmasters. Why, so reason the generals in Islamabad, should they take the blame for both a military fiasco and harsh taxes?

That said, Nawaz Sharief has little else to fall back upon. He is not particularly liked or respected. Other political parties and the media -- essential components of every true democracy -- have a vested interest in keeping the generals away, but Nawaz Sharief himself has done his best to crush them. (So much so that Benazir Bhutto has been forced into virtual exile.) If, or rather when, the generals turn on Nawaz Sharief he will find himself without any potential allies.

But shed no tears for the prime minister of Pakistan, a man who has dug his own grave. He could have reined in the generals -- if not before the Kargil crisis began, then afterwards at least. Instead, he has tried to justify it. By identifying himself so closely with what is happening in Kargil, he has done half the work of the generals for them. How much longer shall it be before they step in to complete the job?

The Kargil invasion began as an operation aimed at India. It will be ironic if its ultimate victim is the prime minister of Pakistan. Ironic, but fitting!

T V R Shenoy