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Kosovo pushing China towards India

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

Senior officials in the external affairs ministry specialising on China today stressed that the changing Chinese perception of India has to be seen from three levels to understand Beijing's moves.

According to their analysis, the Chinese leadership feels that the use of force in Kosovo by forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation to protect the ethnic Albanians is a thinly disguised attempt by Washington and its allies to intervene in ethnic conflicts anywhere in the world.

From the Chinese perspective, the US can, if need be, intervene on behalf of, say, the Tibetans.

The officials emphasised that while the Chinese have the capacity to resist any such unilateral action, the price they will have to pay will be very high.

At another level, terrorism and violence has crept into the Chinese polity via Pakistan. According to some estimates in South Block, in the past two years, China experienced more than 40 acts of terrorism and violence, resulting in a number of civilian casualties.

The officials said that while the Chinese have dealt with the problem with a heavy hand, they would like to find a permanent solution.

The leadership also remains fearful that the Uyghur Muslims in Sinkiang province will be instigated to rise in revolt by Islamic fundamentalists.

According to the officials, the Uyghur Muslims have revolted against the Chinese leadership on a few occasions. Apart from the grouses that they are severely underemployed and mired in poverty, the Muslims do not relish the idea of state repression of their religion.

The younger generation is fiercely protective of Islam, often resorting to fundamentalist activities to enhance it. China therefore remains wary of them despite repressing their movement with a heavy hand.

Thirdly, the officials pointed out, there is increasing acceptance in the international strategic community about the Chinese threat to India and India going nuclear because of this perception. Despite their massive investments in public relations, the Chinese are still viewed with suspicion in the West.

Against this backdrop, the Chinese willingness to open a security dialogue with India is a clear indication of a tactical shift in Beijing's policy.

The officials said that despite India being a multi-ethnic and plural society, New Delhi has dealt with the problem of sub-nationalism effectively in the last 50 years. At the same time, the Indian experience of dealing with insurgency and terrorism is unique in the developing world.

Therefore, the broad parameters of the Sino-Indian security dialogue will advocate a multi-polar world and finding a political framework to deal with terrorism and violence, especially the mercenary forces that are running loose in south and south-west Asia.

Lastly, the proposed dialogue will endeavour to make it abundantly clear to the international community that neither India nor China is a threat to the other.

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