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Eye on mid-term poll, DMK inches towards Congress

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu has begun wooing the Congress indirectly. To this end, the party has declared its intention not to bail out the Vajpayee government, if it came to that, and also take the Centre's 'unjust act' in the 'special courts case' to the people.

"This is the first time the DMK is coming out so very openly against the Vajpayee government, both politically and publicly," concedes a senior party leader. Earlier, the party had maintained 'ambivalence' on backing the Vajpayee government, if it came to that. It had also fought the 'special courts cases' exclusively on the legal front, with the party leadership refusing to bite the bait for taking the issue to the people.

"We will not support the BJP if our help is needed for the survival of the Vajpayee government," DMK chief and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi declared at Madurai last week. "We will hold public meetings across the state on February 14, to explain to the people the Centre's 'unjust decision' notifying the special courts to try cases against Jayalalitha," he announced at Madras on Monday.

Like most other political parties, the DMK too perceives a situation, wherein the Telugu Desam may be forced to withdraw 'outside support' to the Vajpayee government, thus fomenting a fresh crisis at the Centre.

"With the BJP's stock already low at the national-level, and the party too identifying itself so very completely with the AIADMK on the sensitive 'special courts issue', there is nothing much we can do to save the situation for the Vajpayee government," says the DMK source.

The DMK leadership does not rule out fresh elections to the Lok Sabha if the Vajpayee government faltered. "The BJP's public image does not give us much hope for a prospective ally. Its complete identification with the AIADMK and Jayalalitha, particularly on the cases against her, has made any tieup untenable. Add to that the fresh bouts of 'communal violence' that has put the BJP in bad light, and our political line chooses itself."

The DMK hopes the Tamil Maanila Congress ally will take it to the Congress camp. "The job may not be that easy, given our own problems with getting accepted wholly by the Congress," says a TMC source. The TMC also has to choose between continuing the alliance with the DMK and floating a Third Front at the state-level, which it has been talking about, lately.

Says the TMC leader: "On paper, the DMK seems a better bet for the TMC and the Congress. But there was a clear rejection of the DMK government's non-performance in last year's Lok Sabha election, even without the 'Coimbatore blasts' sealing our common fate. But we cannot completely rule out the Third Front at this stage, though it will be for the Congress to take a decision."

Both DMK and TMC sources, so also those in the AIADMK, concede that the Congress has wrested the 'national initiative' in the state from the BJP. State Congress leaders too are aware of it, but are as clueless as their counterparts in intending alliance partners. As they all point out, the DMK with six Lok Sabha members, can part with as many as 30 seats for the Congress and the TMC together, as against the AIADMK, which may need at least the existing 18 seats.

Sections within the TMC do not rule out a Third Front even for the Lok Sabha election even though they have it in mind seriously only for the assembly poll, due in 2001. "With stability becoming the poll plank of the Congress, and Sonia Gandhi reviving the traditional Nehru-Gandhi family charm for the Tamil Nadu voters, any alliance under her leadership should click in the state," says a senior leader.

Both the PMK and the MDMK, now allies of the BJP- AIADMK combine whom the TMC has targeted as partners for the 2001 poll, may fit the bill, according to this leader. "If anything, they are better qualified to speak about 'stability' than the BJP and the AIADMK. As allies of the BJP who won the people's mandate seeking the vote for a Vajpayee-led government, they have not created any pinpricks for the coalition. Thus they qualify as partners on any stability-based poll platform."

Both the DMK and AIADMK feel jittery at such a prospect, but is confident that the Congress may "choose between the two" as a safe course. "There will not be any risk of having to promote an untested alliance like the 'Third Front' that the TMC now has in mind," says the DMK source. Counters the TMC leader: "The traditional votebanks of the DMK and the AIADMK have shrunk drastically, and maybe, it's worth promoting new and identifiable votebanks."

"The ball, however, is in the Congress's court," says a PMK leader. "There is little that smaller parties like the PMK and the MDMK can do if the Lok Sabha election precede the assembly polls, and 'stability at the Centre' becomes the poll issue. There will be two camps, one led by the Congress, and the other having to oppose it. The BJP may not be anywhere in it."

Personally, he is not too sure of a Third Front emerging for the Lok Sabha election. For the present, his party too is unsure of joining the Congress camp. "But it's a game of chance, and we are keeping all our options for the future wide open, even while declaring our continued support to the Vajpayee government, and continued friendship with the AIADMK."

For his part, MDMK chief Vaiko has started referring to TMC founder G K Moopanar's Third Front concept, and also to Jayalalitha "waiting for a call from 10 Janpath". But the party is not sure of joining a Third Front under the Congress leadership for the Lok Sabha poll. "First, we do not know whether we are wanted. Secondly, we have to decide whether we want it, either." What the party has in mind is a Third Front for the assembly poll, "but things may happen even before that".

The DMK is keen to the point of being desperate to woo the Congress. Karunanidhi has offered to favourably consider MGR-ADMK leader S Thirunavukkarasu's suggestion for an 'all-party agitation' against the 'growing BJP-AIADMK nexus' on the 'special courts issue'. Says the MDMK leader: "Obviously, the DMK wants to use the issue to enlist the support of all its allies of last year's polls, and more, to present a viable coalition, to the Congress leadership."

Already, the DMK has succeeded in getting the TMC cancel its separate anti-price rise agitation scheduled for February 15, using the good offices of the Communists. The latter convinced the TMC to join their nation-wide stir scheduled for Tuesday, February 9. Simultaneously, however, the DMK is going ahead with its own separate agitational plans against the Centre on various issues. It had one condemning violence, indirectly hitting at the BJP, on February 3, and has planned one for February 14, naming the BJP more directly.

Says the MDMK leader: "If the TMC is serious about the Third Front, it has to demonstrate its intent. Its cancelled programme for February 15 had also targeted the DMK government, but it has caved in, since. Why can't they tell the Communists to choose the Third Front with the Congress in it, leaving out both the DMK and the AIADMK, if the latter is serious about 'fighting BJP-sponsored communalism'?"

For all this, however, every party concerned concedes that the future of Tamil Nadu's electoral politics is in the hands of the Congress, whose candidates lost their deposit in all the seats they contested in last year's Lok Sabha poll. The Congress too may be careful in choosing its ally, particularly in the light of the 'Rajiv Gandhi assassination case', where the CBI-led MDMA has thus far failed to convince a Madras court of the need for reopening the investigations into the 'larger conspiracy' mentioned in the Jain Commission reports.

Says a state Congress leader: "The DMK was a suspect in the Jain report, and the MDMK and PMK are known sympathisers of the LTTE assassins of Rajiv Gandhi. It certainly is an emotional issue thus for the Congress and Sonia Gandhi in particular, but the Tamil Nadu voter has moved away from the issue, as the DMK's election victory of 1996 proved. Yet, the ball is in the Congress court, we in the state do not know, what to make out of it, whom to oppose and whom to support."

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