ELECTIONS '98
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What happens now?

Some weeks back I wrote about role reversal. About how the Congress was beginning to look more and more like the BJP (communal, autistic, frog in the well) and how the BJP was looking more and more like the Congress (corrupt, unreliable, disgustingly vain). So striking was the role reversal that I warned, in the next elections, whenever that happens, the electorate will find it difficult (if not impossible) to differentiate between the two parties that occupy today the two opposing corners in Indian politics and which, between themselves, account for almost half of all the votes polled in the Lok Sabha elections.

Little did I know then that, for five measly villages, Hastinapur would be lost. The fact that one petulant Swamy could have so easily toppled the entire edifice does not speak very highly of the kind of stable government that the BJP was boasting of. On the other hand, it speaks volumes for the greed and naked lust for power that drives 10 Janpath today.

The masks are off, thank God. We can now see the real face of our politics. Venal; avaricious; vulgar in the extreme. But garbed in the bright, pretty silks of improvised rhetoric, where anything can be explained away. That is why, during the confidence vote, the BJP government was called all kinds of names. Except the one which best suited it: Effete.

Frankly, in my opinion, that is why it lost. The BJP lost the confidence vote not because it was communal or corrupt. Or because it sacked Vishnu Bhagwat. Or imposed President's Rule in Bihar. But because of its sheer incompetence. That is why, despite all its bluster and bravado, it went out so meekly. Its floor management was, to say the least, shabby and shameful.

Losing the head count is not the issue. You can always win or lose in politics and this particular defeat was but by a whisker. You cannot say that it proves India lost confidence in the Vajpayee government. All you can say is that it shows how poor its political management was. It must be particularly galling to realise that, one year into governance, their spin doctors had no clue as to how to handle a crisis that they saw running away with their government. A crisis that began thirteen months ago with one simple problem: Subramanian Swamy. When the BJP dug in its heels and refused to him give a Cabinet seat even though Jayalalitha had specifically asked for it.

The Cabinet was not exactly overflowing with great talent. The BJP and its allies appeared, in fact, to have scraped the bottom of the barrel to find people who could run the government. If Buta Singh, Ramakrishna Hegde and Naveen Patnaik could have been accommodated (and Jayalalitha's other nominees like M Thambi Durai and R Janarthanam) I cannot understand for the life of me why Swamy was such an emphatic no-no. Once you choose your allies, for better or for worse, you have no option but to allow them to decide who should represent them in the Cabinet.

By not correctly assessing Swamy's potential for creating trouble, even though it was clear to everyone who has followed recent political history, the BJP ended up losing its government and, what is worse, looking like an ass. It is no use denying this.

Just as it is no use denying the fact that the Congress won. The Congress was smart, cunning, devilish in its game plan. It outmanouevred everyone else. But, in the process, it also revealed its true colours. With the masks falling off, it showed up the real face of Sonia Gandhi. Greedy, grasping for power. In fact, desperate for it. She is ready to go to any extreme, to join hands with anyone from any party just to hijack power. Anything, anyone is grist to her mill. Be it a scamster like Laloo. Or the Queen of Corruption, Jayalalitha. Or Mayawati, who says one thing today and does exactly the opposite the next day in Parliament. Or, for that matter, Surjeet who has spent his whole life time calling the Congress names.

Let us be honest to ourselves: We all know what the going rate of defection is today. It is in crores. All you have to do is sign up and the cash will be delivered to your house within 24 hours. That is the price India has paid for its democracy.

So how is Sonia different from, say, Sitaram Kesri who brought down the Deve Gowda government for no reason other than his own khunnas? How is she different from Rajiv who brought down the Chandra Shekhar government using as an excuse two harmless Haryana policemen who were posted outside his house? How is she different from her flunkies who brought down the Gujral government after only four months, by making the Jain Commission report an excuse? The excuse was conveniently forgotten the moment the government fell. In fact, every Opposition government has been brought down, not by the people of India but by the obsessively greedy Congress. That is why most Indians believe that the Congress cannot exist without power.

This is where we must give Vajpayee credit. Not because he has come out looking like a martyr. Any fool can don a crown of thorns and make political capital out it. But we must give Vajpayee credit for getting some things right.

He bowed before Jayalalitha, true. But he did not cave in. Each and every case against her remains alive and whoever comes to power with her support will have the onerous responsibility of finding ways and means to help her escape a longish term in prison for crimes of corruption too many to list. It will not be easy and you must give Vajpayee credit for this. For the fact that he did not take the easy way out and make friends with her, closing all her files. It was the simplest thing to do and his government would have ensured its survival if he had done that.

You must also give Vajpayee credit that, despite every opportunity, he did not use Bofors to finish off Sonia. He had the proof. He had Quattrochhi in a bind. The Hindujas are his friends. He could have used all that to show Sonia her place but he chose not to. In fact, he went out of his way to be civil and gracious to her even as she conspired with all his enemies and plotted and planned his fall.

Ditto for Laloo. Yes, he tried to remove Rabri. On the ground of lawlessness and growing crime, for which enough evidence was on hand. But not once did he show vindictiveness or impropriety. Neither did he try to make a deal with Laloo and neutralise him. Given the number of corruption cases pending against him in the fodder scam that would have been the easiest thing in the world to do.

Vajpayee also risked several brave initiatives. He risked his vote bank by trying to make peace with Pakistan. He risked isolating himself from the more conservative elements in his party who wanted him to stick to their anachronistic worldview, not realising that power creates its own sense of responsibility. He tried to carry them along with him but when they refused, he went out on a limb and took a chance anyway. He risked the anger of the swadeshi lobbies and continued, in fact quickened the pace of globalisation. But what impressed me the most was his courage in speaking out, again and again, against religious bigotry and the forces of fundamentalism. Yes, he sometimes sidestepped controversial issues, like the time he went to the Dangs and instead of criticising the VHP for its attacks on Christian tribals, tried instead to initiate a national debate on conversions. But, by and large, Vajpayee invariably stood up for what was right. Even when it hurt his own political interests.

That is why I will miss him. So will India. The media, always been cold to the BJP, is already thawing. Chronic critics are already saying nice things about the government that went out. There is a general feeling that this was an unfair, an unjust ganging up of vested interests that lost Vajpayee his job and the BJP, its government.

That is not all. The new government that comes to power, if indeed any group can muster adequate numbers, will have a tough time establishing its credibility. Particularly if the Congress is a part of it. All the more if Sonia leads it. All that studied reluctance to play dirty politics will sound like so much bullshit. All the claims of being able to offer stability will now have to be proved on the floor of the House and that will not be easy with mercurial allies itching to pursue their own political agenda.

I will have more fun watching it from the Opposition benches now.

Pritish Nandy

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