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Tamil Nadu set for major political realignment

The voting on the motion of confidence in the Lok Sabha by political parties belonging to Tamil Nadu, straying from their known positions, may be a precursor to a major political realignment in the state.

It is also likely to have a bearing on the political situation in the neighbouring Union territory of Pondicherry.

Though the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Tamil Maanila Congress and the Left parties are allies in both places, the DMK voted in support of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government while the TMC and the Left parties voted against it.

The DMK, TMC and CPI share power in Pondicherry.

The AIADMK, the prime player in the toppling game, has already disbanded the front it led in Tamil Nadu. While the AIADMK voted against the motion, the Pattali Makkal Katchi, the Marumalarchi DMK and the Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress, its erstwhile allies, voted for it.

The Janata Party, with its lone member Dr Subramanian Swamy, who is credited with doing the ground work to bring down the government, remains firmly in the AIADMK's company.

While the Congress appears to be inclined to go back to its natural ally, the AIADMK, the question being asked is whether the DMK and the BJP will team up.

On the other hand, the TMC, which was born from the Congress out of antipathy to Jayalalitha in 1996, today finds itself in the AIADMK's company.

While TMC leaders claim that their party is the real Congress in the state, they may have to swallow their pride and help their opponent share power at the Centre.

If this happens, the TMC's honeymoon with the DMK will be as good as over. This will also spell danger for the coalition government in Pondicherry.

Similarly, the DMK and the MDMK, which had broke away from the DMK under Vaiko's leadership, are now on the same side. The question being discussed in political circles is whether this development will herald the coming together of the two parties.

Politics in Tamil Nadu is full of strange bedfellows. In the 1996 election, the CPI-M, a long-time ally of the DMK, broke with it alleging that the DMK was trying to have a secret deal with the Congress. Today, the CPI-M is at the forefront of the move to put the Congress in power in Delhi. And the DMK's appeal to the state unit of the party to press its central leadership for a "course correction" fell on deaf years.

Even while supporting the BJP-led government, the state government was busily making amendments to the Prevention of Terrorism Bill in an attempt to win over Muslim voters.

Given the traditional Muslim support base of the DMK, how far that party will court the BJP in any future election is a matter of conjecture.

The government's tough measures against militants in the aftermath of the Coimbatore blasts had already alienated a large section of the Muslims.

Now, Indian National League president Ebrahim Sulaiman Sait has described as "unfortunate, deeply disturbing and against the national interest" the support extended by the DMK to the Vajpayee government.

In a statement in Delhi, he said Karunanidhi had the support of the minorities, backward and secular forces because of his opposition to "fascist forces". But now the attitude and behaviour of the DMK leadership has undergone a change, which has "completely disillusioned" the minorities.

The INL had an electoral alliance with the DMK. But now the League will have to review its relationship with the Dravidian party. The INL national executive will take a final decision shortly, Sait said.

The PMK had said earlier it would continue to maintain friendly ties with the AIADMK. What course that party will take in the event of another election remains to be seen.

UNI

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