COMMENTARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
DEAR REDIFF
THE STATES
YEH HAI INDIA!
ELECTIONS
ARCHIVES

Government looks set to weather the storm

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

With the confirmed support of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's six members in the Lok Sabha and the Indian National Lok Dal's four, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition government is on a strong wicket. In fact, it does not even need the favourable votes of the Tamil Maanila Congress (3) and Bahujan Samaj Party (5). It needs only ensure that they abstain.

The Opposition has reason to be worried. It is increasingly doubtful if it can muster the numbers required to defeat the confidence motion that will oust the A B Vajpayee government even with the support of the 18-member All-India Anna DMK, whose withdrawal of support triggered the crisis.

Everyone's focus has been on the halfway mark of 271 (the total strength of the Lok Sabha is 544, but two seats are vacant), and whether the BJP can reach that figure. But it is more likely that the BJP will simply win a majority of the members present and voting in the House, and in this it is now clearly in the driver's seat.

The numbers make it clear. BJP front and supporters: BJP 181, Samata 12, TDP 11 (excluding the speaker), BJD 9, SAD 8, Trinamul Congress 7, Shiv Sena 6, DMK 6, INLD 4, PMK 4, MDMK 3, Lok Shakti 3, Arunachal Cong 2, National Conference 2, Tamilnadu Rajiv Congress 1, HVP 1, MSC 1, SDF 1, Independents 5. Total 267.

Opposition: Congress 142, RLM 37, CPI-M 32, AIADMK 18, CPI 9, Janata Dal 6, RSP 5, RPI 4, AIFB 2, IUML 2, PWP 1, UMF 1, MIM 1, Kerala Congress (M) 1, ASDC 1, AHC(S) 1, SJP(R) 1, Janata Party 1, RJP 1. Total 266.

Thus, even if the BSP and TMC abstain, the BJP has the edge, of one vote.

Both sides contain some constituents itching to cross over. For instance, Anand Mohan of the RJP is now reportedly on the BJP side. And while the Opposition is banking on the National Conference's vote, Farooq Abdullah has said his members will back the government. Indications are that the BSP too will vote for the government rather than just abstaining.

Moreover, Malti Devi of the RLM is abroad for medical treatment and will be unable to vote. And though senior BJP politician Vijayaraje Scindia and another BJP member are indisposed, party officials said they are willing to bring both, on wheelchairs if need be, to the Lok Sabha to enable them to cast their votes.

But the officials added that once it becomes clear that the government is leading, it will have a snowballing effect and fence-sitters will jump on to their side. It will also prevent potential deserters from crossing over.

Voting is scheduled to take place on Saturday at 1100 hours IST. But since the debate is unlikely to get over by then, the vote may ultimately be taken later in the day.

The picture became clear this morning when INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala announced his support for the government.

Over the past week, Chautala had been promising to vote against the government. But Punjab Chief Minister and Shiromani Akali Dal chief Parkash Singh Badal, taking time off from the Khalsa tercentenary celebration to rush down to Delhi to aid the government, held talks with him and convinced him to back the government. In return, the BJP has promised to review the increase in the price of urea, the reason Chautala had pulled out of the coalition in February.

Later, DMK politician and former industries minister Murasoli Maran declared his party's support for the BJP during the debate in the Lok Sabha.

Aware that the government has a slight advantage, Congress and Left Front politicians have gone into overdrive. Communist Party of India-Marxist general secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet is still trying to convince the DMK and the TMC to vote against the government. Both parties are upset at having been treated with utter disdain by their erstwhile colleagues from the United Front after the AIADMK pulled out of the coalition.

When Jayalalitha announced that her 18 MPs were switching sides, the Opposition was overjoyed. In February, the BJP had lost the support of Chautala's four members, and the loss of a total 22 MPs was thought to be overwhelming.

Yet, Congress sources now admit that they may have erred in underestimating the antipathy of the other Tamil parties to Jayalalitha. Taking Chautala's vote for granted was another oversight, especially since he had really no major grouse against the government. But Chautala clearly is averse to having a truck with the Congress, to which he remains opposed in Haryana, just as the BSP is dead-set against the RLM.

Tomorrow will reveal whether the Congress and the Communists can pull any political rabbit out of the hat at the last minute.

Tell us what you think of this report