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The numbers game begins in earnest

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

With the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam having crossed the Rubicon and withdrawn support to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition government, the numbers game has begun in earnest.

The government claims to have the support necessary to survive. Highly placed sources in the BJP said it is banking on the support of certain parties that are inimical to the AIADMK and the Congress.

The BJP hopes the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Tamil Maanila Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Indian National Lok Dal will vote in favour of the government or abstain.

But so far only the DMK is certain not to back the Congress-AIADMK alliance. The other three are dithering.

The sources, however, insisted that the public statements of these parties about opposing the BJP were only a ploy to drive a hard bargain. "They may not back us, but we are hoping they will at least abstain, thus helping the government to survive."

The BJP game plan is to prove its majority on the floor of the House whenever voting takes place. Officially, BJP general secretary M Venkaiah Naidu pointed out that the P V Narasimha Rao government survived for more than two years as a minority government. "We are not setting a precedent, only following the Congress's example in 1991. If required, we can and will prove our majority in the house on the day of voting," he stated.

The numbers game remains confusing. At present, the Lok Sabha, with 544 seats, has only 542 members. The halfway mark therefore is 271. The speaker votes only in case of a tie. Traditionally, his vote goes to the government of the day, and there is no reason why G M C Balayogi of the Telugu Desam Party, an ally of the BJP, will break this tradition.

The BJP started the present government with 279 members. With Subramanian Swamy changing sides last year and the four-member Indian National Lok Dal of Om Prakash Chautala withdrawing support a couple of months ago, the alliance was left with 274 members. Now with the AIADMK shifting sides, the BJP-led coalition has just 256 members.

But if the Lok Sabha members of the DMK (6), TMC (3), BSP (5) and INLD (4) abstain, the number of members present and voting will be reduced to 524, making the halfway 262 and leaving the BJP just six short.

Alternatively, the BJP has to ensure that only 512 members are present when the vote is taken.

The BJP sources insisted that as per their calculations, they have the support of 261members.

The party is putting up a brave public face. In the present Lok Sabha, there are 13 parties with only one member each and five independents. It is these individuals whom the BJP is certain to target.

There are also 19 other parties with less than 10 members that may be vulnerable to a split. "There is so much confusion among the main opposition players that the smaller parties are extremely worried. They don't want elections and with no stable opposition emerging, we are sure they will support the government," the sources said.

They admitted that the BJP is talking to these smaller parties, warning them that a mid-term election at this juncture will hurt them the most.

While some Congress politicians claimed that the Samata Party (with 12 members in the Lok Sabha) and the Biju Janata Dal (9) are facing revolts and splits, the BJP sources said much the same situation prevails in other parties.

"There are sufficient parties at present allied with the opposition that may split to support us or simply abstain, so it is a two-way game," the sources said confidently.

Top politicians of the BJP and its allies held a meeting at Prime Minister Vajpayee's residence to thrash out their course of action. The BJP has asked its allies to issue a whip to all their members to be present in the Lok Sabha from tomorrow onwards.

The battle now moves to the Lok Sabha.

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