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Sonia gets an attack of nerves

George Iype in New Delhi

Even as All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalitha began crucial negotiations with Opposition leaders to bring down the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, the Bharatiya Janata Party on Tuesday went into survival mode.

But for the first time, the Congress party displayed signs of confusion as senior leaders are divided on the issue of forming the next government if the Vajpayee regime falls.

In a two-hour long meeting with Sharad Pawar, Arjun Singh, Dr Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukherjee at her home on Tuesday morning, party president Sonia Gandhi made it clear that she does not want the Congress to seize the Jayalalitha-sponsored political crisis.

Sonia, who also held a series of meetings with other Congress leaders, feels it is "unreasonable and politically unsustainable" for the party to jump at the chance to form a government.

She is said to have pointed out that there is stiff resistance from the state Congress units, especially in Karnataka and Kerala, against joining hands with Jayalalitha and the Left parties in forming a coalition government.

But Pawar and Dr Singh are said to be displeased with her decision, as they argue that teaming up with Jayalalitha at this juncture will put the Congress in good stead. Pawar, sources said, is nurturing the ambition to head a Congress-led coalition.

Sensing the divisions within the Opposition ranks, the BJP's senior leaders held a strategic session on Tuesday morning in which it was decided that Prime Minister Vajpayee will not seek a confidence vote if Jayalalitha withdraws support.

"We are confident that the government will survive without AIADMK support," BJP general secretary Bangaru Laxman told Rediff On The NeT soon after the meeting.

He said neither the Congress nor the so-called Third Front is in a position to form the government with Jayalalitha's support. "Let them first come together under one platform and claim they are all willing to form a stable coalition," the BJP leader said.

Laxman said support for the BJP will come from "unexpected quarters", adding that the Vajpayee government is confident that President K R Narayanan will not ask the prime minister to prove his majority in the Lok Sabha if an alliance partner withdraws support.

"We are neither worried or nervous. The political crisis engineered by Jayalalitha and the Congress will only expose them," the BJP general secretary added.

As the Opposition is closing its ranks against the government, the BJP strategy seems to be to display the appearance of availability of support from parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and the Indian National Lok Dal.

Its crisis managers feel this would reduce the possibility of desertions and splits among its weak partners like the Samata Party and the Biju Janata Dal. The BJP is nervous over reports that at least five of the nine BJD MPs and four of the 12 Samata MPs are on the verge of breaking away to join the Opposition ranks.

But the equation of the proposed coalition depends on how successfully Sonia and Jayalalitha handle their first political meeting which is expected to take place on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, Jayalalitha spent most of her time meeting leaders of one-MP parties, Left parties and the RLM.

But a formal shape to the coalition is expected only after Jayalalitha withdraws support to the Vajpayee government. Sources said the AIADMK chief is still debating the modus operandi of bringing down the government.

Her supporters state she has two options in mind. First, go to President K R Narayanan and submit before him the letter of withdrawal. Second, avoid giving the letter to the President. Instead, pull down the government by moving a no-confidence motion against Vajpayee in the Lok Sabha.

Jayalalitha is yet to seek an appointment with Narayanan as she wants to reach an understanding with the Congress, the Left and the RLM over the shape of the new coalition. She is particularly keen that Sonia should also play "a proactive role" in throwing out the BJP government.

But Sonia has already made it clear to the AIADMK chief through Janata Party president Dr Subramanian Swamy that the Congress does not want to politically entertain Jayalalitha before she carries out her threat to withdraw support to Vajpayee government.

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