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Better late than never, say experts of Agni tests

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

"The Agni-2 missile test should have come before the nuclear tests in Pokhran," said Air Vice-Marshal (retired) Kapil Kak, who now specialises on national security at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

"But the test, though late, is right because Pokhran II is incomplete without a system to deliver our nuclear deterrence," he added.

That seems to be the bottom line across the board for defence and security experts. Dr Bharat Karnad, a member of the recently formed National Security Council, which was set up in the wake of the nuclear tests to advise the government on security and formulate defence policies, said the test was long overdue.

"The tests are belated. They have been on the cards for many years and it is good that the go-ahead was finally given," he said.

The Agni-2 test is particularly important in the light of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee declaring on December 17, 1998, that India would maintain a "minimum deterrent nuclear force".

Vajpayee had added that no power (read: the United States) could prevent India from looking after its basic defence requirements.

"When he made that statement, it was clear that a missile test was in the offing," said Dr Karnad, "because any nuclear deterrent to be effective needs a delivery system."

And not just a delivery system, but one that is virtually foolproof. A system that can reach targets deep inside enemy territory.

"India is committed to no-first-use of its nuclear weapons, and any nuclear doctrine based on the concept of second strike is incomplete unless the retaliation can penetrate enemy territory and strike vulnerable areas," Air Vice-Marshal Kak pointed out.

The Prithvi short-range missiles have a range of up to 500 km, which effectively covers most important areas of Pakistan. Agni-1 has a range of 1,500 km, while the latest version has a range of up to 2,500 km. It must be noted that the range varies as per the payload.

But while the test has been lauded, the experts insist that the missile programme cannot, and must not, be stopped at this stage. "To make our deterrence truly effective, we must have the entire range of delivery systems. We must now go for the Agni-3, which has a range of 4000 km, and the ICBMs [inter-continental ballistic missiles; the Agni series are intermediate-range ballistic missiles]," said Dr Karnad.

Air Vice-Marshal Kak said the 21st century, now just a few months away, would be a century of strategic uncertainties. "We in India today have no idea about our challenges, or the nature of challenges, ahead. And for nuclear deterrence to be effective, India must have the capability to build ICBMs with a range of 12,000km which can cover the globe," he stated.

"Only such a deterrence will ensure India's security needs, so that the country is never threatened, blackmailed, or coerced," added Air Vice-Marshal Kak.

The muted reaction of Pakistan and the United States is also being seen as acceptance of the fact that India will build and maintain a minimum nuclear deterrence. "Pakistan's statement that it will give a befitting reply is exactly what one would expect," said J N Dixit, former foreign secretary.

Similarly, the reaction of the US and Britain, merely expressing regrets, was very much along expected lines, Dixit added.

It is being suggested in some quarters that the missile test may be a precursor to signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Dr Karnad dismissed the idea. "The CTBT concerns nuclear weapons, so there is no link. And I am not too sure if India is willing to sign the CTBT unless other nations do so."

Dixit too did not see any link between the two issues. "I cannot say whether India will sign the CTBT, but I doubt if the Agni-2 test had anything to do with it," he said.

The timing of the test, coming as it did while the Vajpayee government faces a grave political crisis, is also being suspected. In fact, in his address to the nation on Sunday evening, the prime minister spoke of the need for political stability, giving a political angle to a speech relating to defence matters.

"One certainly cannot divorce politics from policy, but to be fair, it must be noted that the decision to resume the missile tests had been languishing. The BJP government had no choice given its aim of minimum deterrence. Also, the monsoons are approaching which will make testing very difficult. Thus, the government had very little time," said Dr Karnad.

An advantage of Agni-2 is that since both its stages use solid fuel, it can be launched from a mobile launcher rather than fixed silos. Solid fuel is easy to carry and has better combustion. Agni-1 used a solid-liquid combination, the liquid causing logistic problems.

"The Gulf War of 1990 showed us the importance of keeping missiles mobile. Despite 1,500 sorties, the US could not locate all the missile sites of Iraq," said Air Vice-Marshal Kak.

It is Agni-2's mobility that allows it to be brought within range of targets atop trucks or trains and fired. The use of solid fuel also puts India in a select club of nations possessing the technology.

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