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Congress gets more trouble than it had bargained for

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

Just as James Bond preferred his martinis "shaken, not stirred", the Congress seems to prefer the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition government down, not out.

With events moving fast over the last week, the Congress is in a bind.

After Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's bus ride to Lahore caught the nation's imagination, the Congress decided to give the government a scare, if only to keep it on its toes and remind the Indian people that it exists.

Its first choice of issue to embarrass the government was Bihar where, after first declaring that Rabri Devi had lost her right to rule, the Congress decided to oppose the imposition of President's rule in the state, forcing the government to withdraw its notification under Article 356.

Unfortunately for the Congress, hardly had Rabri Devi returned to her seat than another massacre took place in the lawless state. The Congress promptly condemned the Rashtriya Janata Dal government, but still ended up looking amoral and opportunistic. Moreover, the contrast with Orissa, where Congress president Sonia Gandhi got J B Patnaik to step down as chief minister following the gruesome murder of Australia-born missionary Graham Stains and his two sons, was stark. Were the lives of three white persons more important than those of hundreds of dalits and bhumihars, was the question.

In the dismissal of navy chief Vishnu Bhagwat, the Congress saw another opportunity to embarrass the government and regain the political initiative. Gandhi ordered an offensive. And the redoubtable Jayalalitha, keen to grab headlines on a matter of "national interest" rather than one concerning the corruption cases against her, too chose to attack Defence Minister George Fernandes. The two ladies had found a chance to get together, and all seemed to be going well, especially after they smiled at each other at a tea party.

Unfortunately, however, matters went a little too far for Gandhi's liking. The BJP had had enough of the Empress of Poes Garden and refused to heed Jayalalitha's demand to move Fernandes out from the defence ministry. Taken aback, Jayalalitha asked her ministers to resign. She had no other go. Otherwise it would have become clear to all that she was just a bully.

But by delaying the withdrawal of support to the government, the shrewd lady has left the door slightly ajar for a rapprochement. Whether that happens remains to be seen.

The problem for the Congress is that it is not prepared to form the government right now. The key question: if the BJP-led government falls and the President invites the Congress (as the second largest party in the Lok Sabha), who will be the next prime minister?

The Left parties, which had earlier opposed Sonia Gandhi, have now apparently agreed to back her. But it is not so easy. Because for how long the next prime minister will survive in office is anybody's guess.

A Congress-led government will be even more infirm than the present one, depending on the support of a score of unstable allies, including some parties boasting just one MP each. Most political analysts now predict a mid-term election before the end of the year. There is also the very real fear that no one leading such motley groups, each with their own agendas, will ever be able to make any positive impact on the electorate. Thus, whoever is in power at the time of the poll is certain to suffer an anti-establishment vote.

Gandhi would prefer to become prime minister after the election, if the Congress gets a majority. If she becomes prime minister now and the party does badly, it will be held against her. By not taking charge, she can always point a finger at someone else.

Having seen how the BJP's allies have bullied Vajpayee, Gandhi is only too aware of the pitfalls. Leading such a ragtag coalition will only destroy her cultivated image of a sophisticated and unflappable lady and show up her flaws.

So if not her, who? Leader of the Opposition Sharad Pawar should be the natural choice, but Gandhi doesn't much like the Maratha strongman. Anyway, according to sources in the party, Pawar has already made it clear that he is not interested in leading a ragged bunch. His reasons: the same as listed above.

According to the sources, Manmohan Singh has thrown his turban into the ring and declared, Barkis-like, that he is willing. But the Left Front, whose support will make or mar a Congress-led government, cares little for the ex-Communist. To the Left, Singh is synonymous with economic liberalisation and hence anathema. And choosing a person from among the other lesser mortals in the Congress might lead to a "Why him and not me?" syndrome.

That leaves the option of a non-Congress prime minister. H D Deve Gowda too has declared his willingness to return to the hot seat, but in recent times he has also shown his nasty side by bullying Karnataka Chief Minister J H Patel. Also, the Janata Dal is a shadow of its former self with only half a dozen MPs.

Someone like Mulayam Singh Yadav could be dangerous for the Congress, because his Samajwadi Party is in direct competition with Gandhi's outfit for the minority votes in Uttar Pradesh. And without Uttar Pradesh, the Congress cannot hope to recapture Delhi.

Actually, Yadav also realises that his party and the Congress are in competition and so is not too keen to strengthen the latter. Hence, even if he ends up supporting the Congress, he will want the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh dismissed. If Gandhi refuses, Yadav may end up doing a Jayalalitha on the Congress.

Thus it is that the Congress finds itself in a quandary, and all because Jayalalitha and the BJP have failed to arrive at a last-minute compromise like in the good old days.

The Congress is beginning to find out that having Jayalalitha on its side is actually an advantage to the opposition, which is why the BJP is now avoiding a rapprochement. The party is in a win-win situation: if its government survives, that's great (and Jayalalitha's in trouble); if not, it can sit on the sidelines and watch the Congress make a fool of itself. And then pick up the votes in the next election.

Uneasy indeed lies the head that wears the crown.

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