ASSEMBLY POLL '98
COMMENTARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
DEAR REDIFF
THE STATES
YEH HAI INDIA!
ELECTIONS '98
ARCHIVES

Jaya has the last word, but little else

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

By describing her high tea meeting with Congress president Sonia Gandhi as a "political earthquake", AIADMK chief Jayalalitha seems to have had the last word during her five-day stay in the national capital.

And with that, she also seems to have shifted the national focus that was drifting towards Sonia Gandhi for a day, back to herself, even while reminding her BJP national ally of its 'obligations' to the AIADMK for ensuring the Vajpayee government's longevity.

"The Delhi visit itself was meant to be a PR exercise at one stage, that too after the alleged chappal attack on her one-time auditor at Jayalalitha's Poes Garden residence," says an informed source. "The tea party hosted by Janata Party president Subramanian Swamy was said to be the highlight, where the anti-BJP Opposition leaders were to make a beeline to be seen in Jayalalitha's company. With most of them staying away, and Sonia Gandhi making a dramatic entry after days of suspense -- and following it with an equally dramatic exit -- Jayalalitha had to reassert her position as the 'queen bee' in the political honeycomb."

The idea, says the source, was not just 'cosmetic'. It had as much to do with realpolitik, adds he. "If by breaking bread with Jayalalitha, Sonia Gandhi succeeded in exposing the fragile nature of the Vajpayee government, which was seen as settling down after months of agony, the Congress president also succeeded in showing her up as the one who held the rival's future in her hands. The 'political earthquake' statement thus put limelight back on Jayalalitha, who was enjoying every bit of it on the first three days of her Delhi stay."

In this context, the source refers to the BJP deputing two senior leaders to wait on Jayalalitha on her arrival at the Delhi airport, and directing Defence Minister George Fernandes to call on her at her hotel room, to discuss the 'Bhagwat issue'. All this, apart from family members of the prime minister being made to pay obeisance to the visiting leader, first at her hotel and later when she came in for a luncheon at Vajpayee's residence. "A consummate politician with a congenital penchant for drama, Jayalalitha could not have let Sonia Gandhi walk away with a better show in the climax scene."

For all this, however, there was also a political message in Jayalalitha's Delhi dialogues, including the coordination committee meeting of the ruling coalition and the BJP-sponsored Vijay Goel high tea before the one hosted by Swamy. "If the BJP exposed its weakness by dancing to her tune, sung and unsung, it was but natural for her to exploit it to the maximum. And she knew, the bottomline related to her pending court cases, and other problems, like income-tax and FERA matters, with the government, of which her party is the second largest partner," says the source. "And the BJP, while going with her on these issues, still seems to be reluctant to travel the full way."

The AIADMK's idea, says the source, is to try and squeeze favours out of the Vajpayee government. "Not much transpired at the Jayalalitha's famed luncheon with Vajpayee, who nearly vetoed all her requests, other than the one on the Reservations Bill," says the source. "Worse still, the prime minister went out of the way to assert that George Fernandes would not be replaced, nor would the Cabinet be expanded, to accommodate the AIADMK claims. Worse still, he said it all when Jayalalitha was still in Delhi. While that may have showed the prime minister and the BJP in a better light, it did show the AIADMK as a weakling, which impression Jayalalitha had to break."

As the source points out, "There is not much politically, or administratively, that the Congress can offer than what the BJP has now done. There is also no guarantee, which way the wind would blow if and when the AIADMK decides to snap ties with the BJP, and withdraw support to the Vajpayee government. After all, two can play tango, and the AIADMK leadership is aware that it cannot count on the loyalties of all its 18 Lok Sabha members, if the chips are down. Back home in Tamil Nadu, Jayalalitha is still seen as a 'coalition-wrecker', and that can set the Congress thinking, if it had alliance plans for the AIADMK."

However, there is no denying the embarrassment caused to the Vajpayee government and the AIADMK, by Jayalalitha's continued demand for Fernandes's replacement. "Her persistent demand, despite studied silence at the end of the coordination committee discussions on the subject, has made a way-out difficult for the BJP. By taking a non-retractable position, Jayalalitha has forced the BJP to choose between the continuity of the Vajpayee government, and that of Fernandes at defence. She has reasons to hope that the BJP will be forced at least to meet her half-way, by conceding a JPC, which she can now trumpet as her success where Sonia Gandhi's Congress had failed. Now, it's for the BJP to prove her assumptions right -- or, wrong."

Tell us what you think of this report