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The Rediff Special/ Dr N Bhaskara Rao

'Delhi prefers Congress in assembly poll, wants Sonia as PM if BJP govt falls'

Delhi may witness a significant shift in the voting pattern during next month's assembly poll. The Congress will gain from the shift.

Unlike in the recent general election in Delhi, polarisation of voters between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party is complete with other parties getting marginalised. Of these, only the Bahujan Samaj Party manages to retain 2 per cent of the votes. The Janata Dal seems to be the biggest loser.

As of now, the Congress seems set to win the Delhi assembly poll. The party will get anywhere between 37 and 39 seats against the 14 it now has in a House of 70.

If the election is held now, the BJP will win less than 30 seats against the 48 it now holds. Two or three Independents are also expected to make it.

The erosion in the BJP vote is uniform in all parts of Delhi except perhaps in Delhi Sadar.

Compared to the 1993 assembly poll, the Congress may gain over 7 percentage points. The BJP is set to lose about 3 percentage points as compared to the recent Lok Sabha election. A loss of 3 per cent vote would make significant difference to the BJP's fortunes in Delhi.

These are some of the highlights of the independent Centre for Media Studies Poll Survey in Delhi last fortnight.

As many as 420 voters from seven carefully selected assembly segments were personally interviewed using a structured questionnaire to elicit their voting intentions.

Despite a certain scare in meeting strangers -- because of the much-talked-about crime in Delhi -- CMS researchers were able to achieve good response.

Nearly 62 per cent of the Delhi voters are not satisfied with the BJP-led government at the Centre. And nearly a third are unhappy with the BJP government in Delhi.

As of now, 2 per cent of the voters do not intend to vote as they are disillusioned with the very process of elections. Nearly 10 per cent of the voters are yet to decide or not sure of their voting intentions.

Despite the anti-BJP mood, Union Tourism and Parliamentary Minister Madan Lal Khurana seems to be preferred as chief minister. Nearly 28 per cent of the voters prefer him while 11 per cent want Chief Minister Sahib Singh Verma to continue.

Congress leader Meira Kumar (13 per cent voters) and Delhi Congress president Sheila Dixit (15 per cent voters) have also been preferred for the post.

Fifty-three per cent of the voters want a 'new face' as their MLA in the new House while 38 per cent would like the 'sitting member' to continue.

Fifty per cent of the voters now think the Congress is capable of ensuring 'better governance' in Delhi while a third still prefers the BJP.

"That the anti-incumbency factor is swaying voters is obvious from CMS surveys, not only in Delhi but also in Rajasthan," sums up CMS psephologist Dharmender Kumar Singh.

While price rise and instability or indecisiveness are the prime reasons for the unhappiness with the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, law and order, lack of civic amenities, crippling power and water cuts have triggered disillusionment with the BJP government in Delhi state.

Surprisingly, despite being highlighted in the media and in recent court judgments, pollution was mentioned by just one per cent of the voters as a poll issue.

One-third of the voters think the proposed full statehood for Delhi would make no difference to their woes. Forty-five per cent expects some difference and hopes for some improvement in the living conditions.

As for the prime ministerial candidates, Congress president Sonia Gandhi is 'preferred' by 49 per cent of the Delhi voters, should BJP lose its majority at the Centre. Only 12 per cent prefer Lal Kishinchand Advani. Twenty-five percent, however, did not disclose their choice.

In fact, two-third of the voters feel that the Congress candidate in their constituency would benefit because of Sonia's leadership.

The survey clears shows that the Congress has won back the confidence of minorities, particularly Muslim voters, apparently more because of the BJP's rule both at the Centre and in Delhi.

Nearly 70 per cent of the Muslims will vote for the Congress. One-fifth of the Muslim voters, however, are still undecided. Nearly 60 per cent of the minority voters think the Congress can protect their interests.

That is how the Congress seems to be gaining an edge over the BJP.

Dr Bhaskara Rao is a well-known psephologist who heads the Centre for Media Studies.

The Rediff Specials

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