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Jat ire could bring BJP to its knees in Delhi, Rajasthan

George Iype in New Delhi

The Bharatiya Janata Party's desperate election-eve gamble to appoint Sushma Swaraj as Delhi's chief minister may prove counter-productive.

Many in the BJP fear that by axing Sahib Singh Verma, the leadership now runs the risk of alienating the party's supporters among the Jat community, in Delhi as well as in Rajasthan.

While the BJP high command, reeling under the problems that Verma's removal has created in the party's stronghold, Jat leaders from rural Delhi and Rajasthan are trying to persuade the ousted chief minister to break away from the BJP and form a new party.

"Sahib Singh Verma is the only popular Jat leader in the BJP. By sacking him, the BJP high command has angered the community, which is a crucial vote-bank for the party," a BJP legislator in Delhi told Rediff On The NeT, on condition of anonymity.

"Considering the grassroot support that Verma enjoys in Delhi's rural areas, especially among the Jats, it was an unwise decision to remove him unceremoniously at this juncture," the BJP leader argued.

Though Verma's defiant Jat supporters want him to quit the BJP and form a new party, party sources said the former chief minister will not take this extreme step as he has been promised a Cabinet post by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Verma is a popular leader with a huge following in Jat-dominated Outer Delhi, an area which contributes 22 seats to the 70-member Delhi assembly. "As chief minister it is true that Verma has not been as successful as his arch-rival Madanlal Khurana. But his support base in Delhi's rural community is intact," a Delhi BJP general secretary said.

According to him, the BJP high command failed to take the voting pattern into consideration before axing Verma.

Delhi has been a BJP stronghold for the last two decades. The party grew in the city in the early 1980s under leaders like Khurana and Vijay Kumar Malhotra.

Though Khurana and Malhotra have a strong presence among the city's large Punjabi population, the BJP began to challenge the might of Congress leaders like Sajjan Kumar and H K L Bhagat with the emergence of Sahib Singh Verma.

Sajjan Kumar, currently Delhi Pradesh Congress vice-president, dominated Outer Delhi for many years before Verma -- a librarian-turned politician -- took on the Congress by winning over Jat voters in the villages.

The BJP's efforts paid rich dividends during the 1993 assembly election when, with Verma's help, the party stormed Outer Delhi and won most of its assembly constituencies. Verma again proved to be the trump card among Jats in the 1996 Lok Sabha election by helping a BJP candidate K L Sharma to wrest the Outer Delhi parliamentary seat -- for the first time -- from Sajjan Kumar.

Verma's supporters feel that if Delhi is today a BJP stronghold, it is because of the hard work put in by Verma and Khurana. "I feel the Delhi BJP without Verma and Khurana might fritter away whatever electoral gains they could have secured for the party," one BJP source said.

What also disturbs the BJP leadership is the fear that the reverberations of Saturday's change of guard in Delhi will be felt in neighbouring Rajasthan, which also goes to the polls in November.

Even though the BJP leadership had planned to replace the beleaguered septuagenarian, Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, with a new face to lead the party in the election campaign, insiders say the party may now not take the risk.

The party leadership fears that l'affaire Verma could have repercussions in Jat-dominated assembly segments in Rajasthan. In this year's general election, the BJP was virtually wiped out in Rajasthan.

BJP managers say the party plans to pit Swaraj against Pradesh Congress Committee president Shiela Dixit. "This assembly election will be fought between two women -- Sushmaji and Dixit. We hope our new chief minister has an edge over the Congress candidate," a senior BJP leader told Rediff On The NeT.

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