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The Rediff Special

A Ghauri Sight

Seven minutes after Pakistan's Ghauri missile is fired from Lahore at Delhi, it will hit the capital and kill 9,000,000 people. Outlook correspondents Aniruddha Bahal and Krishna Prasad outline the terrifying prospects of a nuclear catastrophe.

It might come one afternoon when you’re busy buying pastry at Wenger's in Connaught Place, New Delhi. You wouldn't hear any shrill whistle, the advance audio that precedes artillery shells. You wouldn't feel any pain either for being 2,000 feet below an aerially burst I megaton thermo-nuclear device -- 80 times more powerful than the Hiroshima one -- dropped by an F-16 means that you would be vapour in seconds.

When it explodes, you won't know what hit you but people in Agra and Jaipur, 200,300 km away, will see the flash.

In Hiroshima, 100,000 people died when 'Little Boy' fell; 9,000,000 people will perish in Delhi if that happens, according to S Rashid Naim, a Georgia Tech University scholar, who studied precisely this scenario, Naim based his estimate on 1991 census figures when Delhi's population was 9,118,600.

Which means roughly one in 10 persons in the capital stands the chance of survival in a nuclear attack.

Everyone within a seven km radius will be killed instantly. Everything will be reduced to rubble. That includes South Block, the PMO, the Supreme Court, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, Delhi Zoo, Jama Masjid, AIIMS, the five-star hotels, Nehru stadium, and India International Centre, Nizamuddin and Janpath.

First, concrete structures will collapse in the impact of the blast. If you're in a shop/house, it'll come down on you like a ton of bricks. Fires will rage through the city. A single megaton weapon can cause third-degree burns up to 8 km away, and second-degree burns up to 10 km away. Within a 120 km radius the fires are likely to burn for 10 to 12 days. The damage will be more severe because we have very limited firefighting capabilities.

Second, a heat wave -- of more than 1,000 degrees C -- will sweep across. If you're in the open, and wearing a half-sleeve shirt or a micro skirt, your skin will get charred beyond repair. If that happens, death will come easier. Remember, AIIMS has already been razed. That is if you can get there. Remember, roads have already been destroyed, traffic has jammed. And then remember, you're not the only one: India has just 35 physicians and 74 hospitals beds per 100,000 people.

If the blast or heat don't get you, a gale of nuclear radiation will. It can cover much of a continent. If you're lucky, it will blow across the Yamuna and luck will run out for Ghaziabad and Sahibabad. Milk/water contamination. A 600 Rem dose of radiation over a week will cause fatal illnesses to 90 per cent of the population exposed. Radioactive lodine can cause you six types of cancer.

Needless to add that the number of casualties could go up depending upon existing wind speed, population distribution and timing of attack, etc. And, of course, the number of bombs that the aggressor chooses to drop.

Says Professor Chari, former director of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses: 'Ground level detonations cause more deaths due to radiation than air bursts.' Radiation effects can be felt for more than three generations.

Don't say: 'I'm not worried. They won't get this far, and if they do I'll take precautions.' As Bharat Karnad of the Centre of Policy Research says: 'From Lahore to Delhi, as the crow flies, the flying time for a commercial aircraft is 15 minutes. Imagine what it'll be for Ghauri.' Adds IDSA director Jasjit Singh: 'Ghauri can hit Delhi within 6 to 7 minutes of launch.'

A similar strike above Victoria Terminus in Bombay would wipe out around 8.936 million people, according to Naim. A five PSI (pounds per square inch) blast would raze Nariman Point, Mantralaya, Colaba, Navy Nagar, the business centre at Worli, Mahalaxmi, Bombay Central; even parts of Dadar, Bandra and Kurla.

Researchers say it is more likely that given Bombay's changing demographic distribution -- more and more people are moving into the suburbs -- an aggressor is more likely to make heavily populated Dadar the target of his attack. In which case the toll will be even higher.

The casualties in Bombay will be higher because of the structural high rises, higher population density. The flash will be visible in Pune. Says an expert: 'In Bombay and Delhi, a very high percentage of national wealth can be destroyed by fewer warheads, since high-value centres are concentrated in small areas.'

Pakistan will choose to attack in the October-May period. For, otherwise the south-west monsoon winds would carry some of the fallout to Pakistan.

JJ and Jaslok and Cooper and Nanavati hospitals will fall in the penumbra of the attack. Besides, post-strike casualties would be higher because Bombay's linear design won't leave many towns for people to rush to for shelter and medical aid. The nearest landmass across the Thane Creek is New Bombay -- Vashi, Nerul, Belapur. But again the city's design will hamper movement of survivors.

The hills around Thane will act as a buffer if the aggressor chooses to attack VT or Dadar, just like the hills of Nagasaki saved hundreds of thousands. But the long-term effects will be stunning. There will be an outbreak of leukaemia in the initial 10 years before it tapers off. All other cancers will then take over.

The Radiation Effects Research Foundation in Hiroshima, which has conducted epidemiological studies of long-term health effects, says people exposed in-utero have shown a reduction IQ with increasing dose, a higher incidence of mental retardation in the heavily exposed.

Researchers say an aggressor will specifically focus on energy and transport targets -- which means the atomic power plants at Tarapur (near Bombay), Kakrapar (in Gujarat), Kota (near Delhi) and Narora (in UP). That will cause further radiation havoc.

The only saving grace for Bombay will be that a lot of the thermal radiation will sweep into the Arabian Sea. But only just.

Of course, if you are half way from hitting water with your triple somersault in the Talkatora indoor swimming stadium when Ghauri strikes, what could be a moot point to wonder is whether the water in the pool would vaporise before you hit it.

That is, if you made it that down.

Kind Courtesy: Outlook magazine

The Rediff Specials

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