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Economic carrot stalls Pak N-tests

The lure of a moral high ground, more than a score of F-16s to carry existing nuclear war heads and, of course, a considerable hike in aid and loans -- all this and more has kept the Chagai Hills in Baluchistan waiting for the nod from Islamabad.

The go ahead for Pakistan's first-ever nuclear test may not come after all, believe economists and defence experts.

Their belief is rooted in the fact that even more than India, it is the Pakistan economy that is reliant on US and Japanese aid.

This being the stick, both the US and Japan have countered it with a most luscious carrot -- namely, increased aid in the event Pakistan does not go ahead with the nuclear test.

The Clinton administration sent its Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, central command chief General Anthony Zinni, Assistant Secretary of State Karl F Inderfurth, and advisor to US president Bruce Reidel to meet Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief and chief of army staff General Jehangir Karamat.

Analysts indicate that the team, which offered Pakistan immense lures to keep it from going nuclear, has succeeded in getting the message across and convincing Pakistan that it is in its own best interests to refrain from going nuclear.

For starters, the US has given a firm commitment both on the long delayed delivery of 28 F-16s (the US had stopped delivery in 1990 under the provisions of the Pressler Amendment), plus other conventional weapons to effectively counter the Indian might.

It is important to remember that it was US perception that Pakistan was readying to go nuclear that forced it to halt delivery of the F-16s, which are nuclear-capable.

Interestingly, US Senators Sam Brownback and Tom Harkin have already introduced a bill for the repeal of the Pressler Amendment.

Another indication of the developed world's 'deal' with Pakistan is the visit of the Japanese prime minister's special envoy to Inslamabad.

Seiichiro Noboru, after meeting Sharief, indicated that if Pakistan did not conduct nuclear tests, it would get immense economic benefits. Noboru did not specify what exactly his government has to offer the Pakistanis, but Japan is believed to be readying to follow in the US lines and offer a very attractive package, including substantive hikes in aid, loans and investment.

While there are as yet unconfirmed reports that both the US and Japan have offered to double existing aid to Pakistan, the latter country is also lobbying hard to get the two leading nations to write off all its debts, thus giving its economy an enormous shot in the arm.

Officially, however, both nations continue to play coy and deny any such economic incentives in return for a "no test" assurance from Pakistan.

"This is highly speculative, we don't have any definite information. I don't think that any such offer has come from Washington. If you want further information, you should contact Washington," a spokesperson for US Ambassador Richard Celeste told Rediff On The NeT.

"I am not aware of it and I am not in a position to answer your question," was the response from Y Hamamoto, second secretary in the economic affairs department, at the Japanese embassy in New Delhi.

"They don't lose anything by not testing, but they stand to gain a lot by not testing. So it is most unlikely that they will conduct a test," a defence ministry official told Rediff On The NeT.

What Pakistan would lose by testing could be better understood by looking at what India has lost -- $ 20 billion in direct aid alone, from the two nations. The Japanese contribution of $ 1 billion in grant aid and yen loans amounts to 27 per cent of all loans India gets.

This does not account for sanctions and aid cuts from Australia, Denmark, Germany, The Netherlands and Sweden. Nor for the hidden cost, in terms of cancellation or substantive delays in various crucial developmental programmes.

While the European Union has thus far shown no sign of following the US-Japan example and hold out economic carrots to Pakistan, it is expected that the EU will follow Clinton's appeal to punish the Indian bully and to protect the smaller victim.

Another interesting factor mentioned by analysts is that with the spotlight trained on the South Asian region, China may not help Pakistan conduct its nuclear tests, since such an act would only legitimise the Indian argument that the Sino-Pak nexus poses a security threat.

Without China's active help, Pakistan risks a failure if it goes in for tests.

Therefore, every indication, according to informed analysts, is that Pakistan, with everything to gain and nothing to lose, could well refrain from conducting its own tests. And reap the economic windfall that will inevitably accrue.

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