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Hind-Chini byebye?

Rajesh Ramachandran in New Delhi

The reluctant dragon has been drawn into sabre-rattling. And now the Vajpayee government has to fight the fire that China breathes down its neck.

Given the floundering state of Indo-China relations, what is causing the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government some concern is the renewed public nexus between Beijing and Islamabad. Pakistan Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed concluded his visit to China on Monday, and speculation is rife that his prime minister, Nawaz Sharief, will follow suit soon.

The external affairs ministry summoned its envoy in Beijing, Vijay K Nambiar, to Delhi to register its protest with the Chinese for the strong language used while condemning India, and also to discuss threadbare the consequences of the country's nuclear explosions on May 11 and 13. Although the MEA today termed Nambiar's visit a routine one, there are not many takers for this view.

Officials and analysts agree that the letter Vajpayee wrote US President Bill Clinton has made a big difference to the country's relations with China.

"What has emerged from the letter and the Chinese reaction to it is that, both the sides have to go a long way to build confidence," Commodore Uday Bhaskar, deputy director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, told Rediff On The NeT.

Commodore Bhaskar says the Chinese argument that India is trying to be hegemonistic and that the Indian nuclear tests were a threat, are untenable.

"In realpolitik terms it means the Chinese want to hold all levers of power in this region," he said

The first indication of a shift in the country's policy towards its northern neighbour was Defence Minister George Fernandes's statements when Pakistan launched its intermediate range ballistic missile, Ghauri.

Fernandes had then called China the mother of Ghauri. Later, speaking extempore at the Krishna Menon in Delhi on April 26, he went a step ahead and called China India's potential enemy number one.

Then came the nuclear explosions. Interestingly, China's response to the first test was mild. But the whole situation took a U-turn when Vajpayee's letter to the US president was leaked to The New York Times.

"Do you think the PM would have written such a letter if he had any intention to make it public? You don't leak a letter from the head of a State unless you are at war. The turn-around in Indo-China relations began there. And, of course, Fernandes's statements had queered the pitch earlier," a defence ministry official told Rediff On The NeT.

But not everyone is willing to blame Fernandes. "He didn't go overboard but said only what was overdue. I have been saying this for the last 20 years," Dr Bharat Karnad, a fellow with the Centre for Policy Research told Rediff On The NeT.

Dr Karnad agrees that Indo-China relations are hotting up. But he feels the situation will not go beyond verbal sabre-rattling.

It is not surprising that the BJP, the defence establishment and analysts emphasise the Chinese threat. "Even during meetings with the service chiefs and other officials, the Chinese threat was discussed, so it is nothing new. But the question is, was it necessary to point fingers at China before and after detonating the nuclear device?" asks the defence official.

Analysts believe the worst case scenario in India-China relations is Beijing stepping up its support to the separatist movements in the North-East and a shift in its Kashmir policy.

During his visit to Islamabad in December 1996, Chinese President Jiang Zemin refrained from uttering one word about the Kashmir issue, and exhorted Pakistan to "temporarily shelve intractable issues" in order to normalise relations with its neighbour. The anti-India mood in Beijing, especially the statement that India is attempting hegemony in the region, should be music to Pakistani ears, and could be easily used for a Chinese review on Kashmir.

China, while stating on Tuesday that 90,000 sq km of its land is under Indian occupation, has virtually made a claim to the state of Arunachal Pradesh. Burt this claim has been extant since 1962.

The only card India has up its sleeve is Tibet. Since 1959, when the Dalai Lama fled Tibet, India has given asylum to Tibetan refugees. All the same, India had always held that Tibet is part of China.

A reversal of policy towards Tibet would be a major irritant to China, much more than a Chinese change on Kashmir and the North-East could be to India.

And a free Tibet was always part of Fernandes's private agenda.

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