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West fears more nuclear powers may emerge from the basement

India shook the world by detonating five underground nuclear devices in three days last week. Now, other potential nuclear nations are watching to see if the Indians get away with it.

The world response so far has been mostly rhetoric.

The United States, Japan, Canada and Australia have slapped sanctions on New Delhi, but the summit of the world's eight most powerful nations in Birmingham, England, over the weekend was unable to produce more than a severe condemnation.

That may be just the signal potential nuclear countries are waiting for.

"The worry now is that this will encourage threshold nations to continue their existing programmes,'' said Clifford Beal, editor of Jane's Defence Weekly. "I think they are waiting to see how bad the sanctions are against India.''

Noted a frustrated senior western official, speaking on condition of anonymity, "India is getting away with it as far as I can see. I have no doubt that all those countries with a nuclear capability are watching and if they conclude the world reaction is not strong, they will just go ahead and do it.''

The American Central Intelligence Agency apparently failed to see the Indian blasts coming, though others say it was inevitable.

"We at Jane's had an inkling this was going to happen sooner rather than later,'' Beal said. "Even the previous government was reassessing their position on nuclear deterrence. I believe these tests were planned months in advance. The tests themselves are very complex. The groundwork must have been laid long before the present government came to power.''

Now that India has done it, Pakistan seems anxious to try its hand. If that happens, there remains the likes of Iran, which experts said probably could carry out a test within a couple of years.

US national security adviser Sandy Berger said the Americans are concerned about two arms races in the south Asian peninsula:

"One is the nuclear arms race. The other is the nuclear proliferation race. I would hope the two countries would realise, whatever their capabilities might be, any further conflict between them would be a disaster.''

The failure of the G-8 to agree on joint sanctions against India during their economic summit turned into a North America and Japan against Europe battle.

"Fundamentally, the Europeans were just not on board,'' said the senior western official. "We were not able to get the Europeans, and by Europeans I include Russia, to go along. There are those who think sanctions don't work anyway. But they do work if everybody does them.''

Prime Minister Jean Chretien of Canada led the call for sanctions, pointing out that four of the countries around the summit table could easily be nuclear powers. Canada has had the capability since 1948, but it has chosen not to use it.

"India has looked at recent western history and drawn their own conclusions,'' Beal said. "And they believe nuclear deterrence works. They see it as a force for stability, rather than instability.''

UNI

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