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Chinese reaction out of character, say analysts

Rajesh Ramachandran in New Delhi

The sharp Chinese reaction to India's nuclear tests and the letters Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee wrote to the heads of other nations, was out of character, analysts feel.

They had actually expected China to avoid confrontation. But India's northern neighbour was quick to assert that India wanted to be a dominant player in South Asia, seeking to establish its hegemony in the region. It also said it was slandering China by claiming it constitutes a nuclear threat.

"I expected the Chinese to be conciliatory in their reaction (to the prime minister's letter,) particularly since the reaction to Monday's explosions was mild," Professor G B Deshpande, dean of the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University told Rediff On The NeT. Professor Deshpande says such a letter from the prime minister was necessary to avoid more sanctions, even if it antagonised the Chinese.

"The explanation has to be strong. We can't go on saying that there was no provocation. We have to tell the world that there was a serious problem," he said.

According to Professor Deshpande, the Chinese reaction, the contents of the letter Vajpayee wrote to various heads of states and Defence Minister George Fernandes's earlier statement that China was India's enemy number one, are part of the changing relations between the neighbours. He felt the Chinese have no intention to stop dealing with Pakistan.

Pramod Mahajan, the prime minister's political advisor, today shrugged off China's allegations that India sought to establish dominance in the region with the nuclear tests. "We too were concerned when China conducted tests, not six but 45," he said, avoiding further comment.

Analysts feel there is a major shift in India's foreign policy. "Sino-Indian relations have dramatically changed. Now it is more realistic," Commodore Uday Bhaskar, deputy director of the country's premier defence think-tank, the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses told Rediff On The NeT.

Though the atmosphere in the subcontinent seems vitiated, the defence ministry signals there is nothing to fear since India was willing to sign a no-first use treaty with its neighbours.

"Pakistan may be getting ready with their bomb but there are other players in the region. Iran is there, the Shia deterrent to Sunni Pakistan. Japan is most concerned about the developments. So the situation won't be aggravated," one defence ministry official said.

Commodore Uday Bhaskar feels that despite the sharp initial reaction, China won't remain aggressive. "China is a cautious country. We will go on playing classical poker for some time," he said.

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