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Clinton may not cancel India visit

Senior government officials in South Block today said US President Bill Clinton's visit to India will not be cancelled even though Washington has regretted the Pokhran nuclear tests.

Ministry of external affairs officials have told Rediff On The NeT that, in the prevailing circumstances, it is highly unlikely that Clinton's proposed November visit will be cancelled.

They pointed out that US Defence Secretary William Cohen's letter to Union Defence Minister George Fernandes last week clearly indicated that the Clinton administration wants to enhance the level of defence policy group dialogue between New Delhi and Washington.

They said that various indications -- like the restraint Washington has shown in reacting immediately to Monday's Pokharan tests -- indicate that opinion in the US state department is divided and the Clinton administration would not like to precipitate a crisis at this juncture.

It was stressed that, ever since 1995, Washington has been aware of India's intention to carry out nuclear tests. In fact, this is borne out by the pressure exerted by the US on the P V Narasimha Rao government against carrying out a nuclear test.

According to the officials, domestic economic compulsions prompted the Rao government to defer the tests.

They said the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition decided to go ahead with the test immediately after assuming power as it was in a comfortable position (with India's foreign exchange reserves amounting to $ 20 billion).

The international strategic community, which has been following India's nuclear development programme, was aware of the subtle developments on the nuclear front. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the Clinton administration would adopt a confrontationist posture with New Delhi, it was emphasised.

However, the existing nuclear powers may force India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, said sources in the defence ministry.

Asked about the wisdom of New Delhi signing the CTBT when Islamabad stays away, the officials asserted that Islamabad was not a factor in India's nuclear-weapon manufacturing programme. They said that, except for nuisance value, Islamabad was low on India's priority and strategic thinking.

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