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Analysts believe decision will not lead to arms race

Rajesh Ramachandran in Delhi

With India exploding a thermonuclear device with impunity, the question is being asked if the China controversy raked up by Defence Minister George Fernandes was meant to create a national mood conducive to the test explosions.

China had reacted adversely to Fernandes's view that it was India's potential enemy number one, and experts are beginning to wonder if the minister had an agenda in mind when he made the statement.

However, most defence analysts agree upon one thing: the nuclear test will not escalate tensions in the Indian subcontinent.

They feel India's action has put Pakistan in a difficult situation. It has earlier committed that it would test a nuclear device if India did so.

"We have known all along that Pakistan has the capability. Now let them declare it. I feel it would defuse the situation as it did with the Soviet Union and US when both declared their capabilities," says Dr K Subrahmanyam, former director, Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis.

Air Commodore Jasjit Singh, director, IDSA, says the explosion would not affect India's relations with the Chinese at all.

"The Chinese are much more pragmatic. China took initiatives to have better relations with India only after the 1974 explosion. And in 1976, we could send back our ambassador," he asserts.

China is a declared nuclear power whereas Pakistan, with which India has fought three wars and countless proxy wars, has chosen to equivocate on its capability.

The fact remains that regardless of Fernandes's outburst, the country has been preparing for a nuclear test since some time. In fact, the American media reported last year that preparations were being made at Pokhran for another explosion.

Dr Raja Ramanna, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission and now a member of the AEC, had openly stated that India needed only a week to make a bomb.

Now that the government has shown its resolve by exploding a device, the question that arises is, how far has it taken the country towards becoming a nuclear weapon power? "The situation is not much different from what it was after 1974," Air Commodore Jasjit Singh told Rediff On The NeT.

He feels the conclusive option to become a nuclear power is to deploy a missile which would carry the nuclear warhead to enemy territory. "Tomorrow you deploy a missile and that is the end of the matter."

"How else do we declare ourselves a nuclear power? By taking the bomb out for the Republic Day parade? That is why I had always held that a test was not necessary. But since we have done it, it has become a great morale-booster. The whole country is celebrating, the forces are part of the country, so they are also happy," he says.

India's medium range surface-to-surface ballistic missile, the Prithvi, completed its technology demonstration stage in 1994. After a long wait in cold storage, the missile was resurrected and the Defence Research and Development Organisation had leaked to the press its intention to go ahead with the second stage, which simply put is serial production and induction.

Induction of a weapon into the armed forces implies its transfer to the actual user.

Logically, the defence establishment was gearing up for a nuclear test. And with the Prithvi ready to take off with a nuclear warhead, the country has just touched down on to the nuclear big league.

Coincidentally, the current issue of Organiser, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh weekly, has a special issue on the 24th anniversary of the Pokhran explosion and a cover story on the first nuclear test. Eyebrows are naturally raised that the magazine, rather than wait for the silver jubilee, has published a cover story at this point of time.

For the ruling BJP, of course, the gambit was to make national security a rallying point, and divert attention away from the squabbles wrecking its showcase government. The party will obviously seek the halo which Indira Gandhi wore in the early 1970s before and after the Bangladesh war.

Now that the government has gone ahead with its nuclear intention, the question is what it will do with the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. K Subrahmanyam told Rediff On The NeT that the CTBT is the best instrument with which the country could bargain with the US against any proposed sanctions.

"We can always say we won't sign the CTBT if sanctions are imposed against us."

"One should not anticipate sanctions. Let us hope that better sense will prevail and there will be no sanctions," former defence minister and chairman of the task force which has been appointed to constitute the National Security Council, K C Pant, told Rediff On The NeT.

"Probably we wouldn't get more Coke, that is all. No US president visited us for 20 years. Has that affected our strength?We can offer to sign the CTBT. But I don't think that we should rush out and sign it, as it would be perceived as weakness. The most important thing is whether we display fear or not. If we say that Okay fine, we have done it and we are ready to pay the price we would have to fear less," says Air Commodore Jasjit Singh.

Industry also has apparently imbibed the spirit. Confederation of Indian Industry president Rajesh Shah welcomed and supported today's explosions. In a statement reeking with strong swadeshi overtones, Shah said: "The CII has been working in co-operation with Indian scientists and technologists, and the successful conduct of tests is a reflection of India's strong technological and engineering capability which is obviously at an advanced stage. This is a cause for national pride."

In the event of economic sanctions, Dr Raghuraman, former secretary general of ASSOCHAM and now a consultant with CII, told Rediff On The NeT, "Industry has to cope with them and build up the capacity to face them. The government must have taken into account all those issues before going in for the nuclear test."

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