ELECTIONS '98
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'There is a dictum in strategic defence planning, Imagine the worst case scenario and prepare yourself for it. Which is exactly what we have done'

Mohan Guruswamy

Let me make it categorically clear that today's explosion was no "peaceful" test. We did not find the need to emulate the fig leaf of 1974. We went ahead with the tests because we thought it vital for the security of the nation. We also thought it necessary, keeping any future threat perceptions in mind.

The arms race has been progressing rapidly in the rest of the world. It is true that we have not been a part of that race, but that does not mean that we have not been threatened by it. Western weapons have been pouring into Asia over a period of time. And our threat perceptions are not just from Pakistan -- in fact, Pakistan is a small threat when compared to China. That country has weapons pouring out of its ears.

But the threat perception is not just limited to Asia. The West has been selling nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean. They also have a very strong naval presence in the Indian Ocean. And there is a dictum in strategic defence planning, "Imagine the worst case scenario and prepare yourself for it." Which is exactly what we have done.

Today's tests were a very positive step for India -- it has now equipped us for computer simulation. This means that, as we continue our research, we will need fewer actual explosions to test what we develop. This will make things far easier for us.

The concept of open nuclear capability was not a hidden one -- the BJP had made this abundantly clear in their manifesto and in the national agenda. Our desire to achieve what we have done today is no secret.

This is not random testing -- last week's announcement about the decision to develop and upgrade Agni is witness to that. Agni has more relevance to today's explosions, rather than the Trishul, which was also tested today. This is in keeping with what our manifesto says about exercising the nuclear option for our defence. To exercise this option, we do not just need to develop a nuclear bomb but also possess the weapons system capable of delivering it.

And, obviously, when we decided to go ahead with the test, we were prepared for world reaction. There might be sanctions against us, but I don't think they will really hurt us. Nor will they be long-lasting. The west needs our vast markets, our country also happens to be an extremely fertile investment ground for developed nations.

Besides, I do think there will be a positive fallout if sanctions are imposed on India. For one, it will rally the people behind the government. It will invigorate them, thereby making the idea of some financial belt tightening more palatable. Which also makes it easy for the government to take hard decisions -- the people will be prepared to forego subsidies, they will be prepared for financial sacrifice!

Also, the reactions that have come in so far have been extremely predictable. Did anyone expect Pakistan to react any differently? As for the US, they say they are disappointed. We are sorry, but the US has always been interested in maintaining its hegemony in the field of nuclear capability. So they were bound to be disappointed.

Today's tests were not a prelude to India signing the CTBT. But, after today's tests, the CTBT has now become an option we can consider at the appropriate time.

Mohan Guruswamy, a member of the Bharatiya Janata Party think-tank, spoke to Savera R Someshwar.

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