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Pak scientists tells Jane's they need 60, 70 N-warheads for deterrent value

Pakistani scientists believe the country needs between 60 and 70 nuclear warheads to achieve a credible deterrent capability against India, reports Jane's Defence Weekly.

Following last month's nuclear tests by both countries, there has been worldwide concern over prospects of a nuclear arms race by the two old foes, who have fought three wars in the last 50 years.

Last week, US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott said the main American concern now is whether India and Pakistan have nuclear warheads -- and are prepared to deploy them on missiles that can deliver weapons to their targets.

The article in the June 10 issue of Jane's did not state that Pakistani scientists were going ahead with building an arsenal of 60 to 70 nuclear warheads, only that they believe that number is necessary. Other unidentified Pakistanis were quoted as saying "numbers'' don't matter in the case of nuclear weapons.

But the respected military magazine indicated that Pakistan is proceeding with its missile development programme.

Samar Mubrik, the head of Pakistan's National Development Complex, was quoted by Jane's as saying the research centre was working on two new ballistic missile systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads, in addition to the Ghauri intermediate-range missile that Pakistan test-launched on April 6.

The complex has started serial production of the 700-km range Shaheen I missile even though it has not been flight-tested, Mubrik was quoted as saying. The missile is ready for its first test "any time if the government gives us a go-ahead,'' he was quoted as saying.

The Shaheen II, with a range of 2,000 km, will be ready for testing within a year, Jane's quoted him as saying.

The Pakistani government has said it has no plans to flight test any missiles in the near future.

The size and intensity of Pakistan's nuclear tests continue to be a subject of debate among nuclear experts.

Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's budding nuclear programme, was quoted by Jane's as saying the yield of the five nuclear tests conducted on May 28 was between 40 and 45 kilotons.

One was a "big bomb'' with a yield of between 30 and 35 kilotons and the other four were small, low-yield tactical nuclear weapons which when "tipped on small missiles can be used on the battlefield against concentrations of troops,'' he was quoted as saying.

A sixth device exploded by Pakistan on May 30 had an explosive yield of between 15 and 18 kilotons, about the size of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima at the end of World War II, Mubrik was quoted as saying.

But nuclear scientist Frank Barnaby wrote in Jane's that the May 28 explosions registered 4.6 on the Richter Scale, indicating that the total explosive yield was only between 7 and 8 kilotons. And the May 30 explosion registered about 4.3 on the Richter Scale, equivalent to only 2 to 3 kilotons, he said.

UNI

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